ICC World Twenty20, 30 April-16 MayVenues: Guyana, St Lucia and BarbadosCoverage:plus live text commentary and reports on all matches on the BBC Sport website & mobiles
Sri Lanka, India and West Indies enter the last day of the Super Eights on Tuesday, but only one of them is likely to make the World Twenty20 semi-finals.
India will be eliminated unless they beat Sri Lanka in St Lucia (1800 BST), but even a win might not be enough for Mahendra Dhoni’s side to qualify.
Australia, all but assured of a semi place, face West Indies at 2200 BST.
Only a heavy defeat by the Windies, along with a Sri Lanka win, could squeeze Australia out on net run-rate.
All in all, it promises to be an exciting day at Gros Islet to see which teams qualify for the semis along with England and Pakistan.
India’s task is simplest. They must win – and hope Australia beat Sri Lanka – while making sure their net-run rate, which is currently the worst in Group F, overhauls that of both Sri Lanka and West Indies.
Jayawardene v Harbhajan at the start of the Sri Lankan innings may prove to be the decisive duel
But if Sri Lanka win the earlier game – or if it finishes as a tie or no-result – they are guaranteed to qualify if Australia beat the Windies (or if that game is also a tie or no-result).
However, if Sri Lanka and West Indies are the two victors, then they and Australia would all finish level, and the top two teams on net run-rate would qualify – but that is still likely to be Australia and Sri Lanka, barring a heavy margin of defeat for the Aussies.
If India win the earlier game (or if it is tied or a no-result), West Indies will qualify for the semis – and take Australia with them – if they beat Michael Clarke’s side in the day-night encounter.
A tie or no-result is also enough for the Windies if India win.
Of the nine possible permutations of results, only one would see Australia fail to qualify – if Sri Lanka win the opening game and Australia lose heavily enough to sink their net run-rate below both Sri Lanka and West Indies.
"We want to win this tournament, since we haven’t performed as well as we’d like in the first two World Twenty20s," said Clarke, whose side won all their games in Guyana and Barbados.
"St Lucia has completely different conditions that probably won’t suit our fast bowlers quite as well, so need to make sure we are willing to adapt."
The group winners will face Pakistan on Friday, with the runners-up meeting England on Thursday. Both games are in St Lucia.
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