The BBC’s Will Grant examines whether ex-military leader Muhammadu Buhari could prove a challenge to the current president and frontrunner, Goodluck Jonathan.
Key Nigerian election under way
Polling stations have opened in Nigeria for Africa’s biggest presidential election, with incumbent Goodluck Jonathan seen as frontrunner.
His main challenge is expected to come from ex-military leader Muhammadu Buhari, who has strong support in the mainly Muslim north of the country.
Mr Jonathan is counting on opposition divisions to win outright, avoiding a run-off election.
Voters have begun registering, and voting will start at 1230 (1130 GMT).
Everyone intending to vote is required to register for accreditation before midday.
Mr Jonathan has staked his reputation on the conduct of the election, repeatedly promising it will be free and fair.
Africa’s largest oil producer has long been plagued by corruption and has a history of vote fraud and violence.
The head of the African Union’s observer mission, former Ghanaian President John Kufuor, said some shortcomings had been found with the election process but he was confident the electoral commission would resolve them.
Nigerians are pinning their hopes on this being their cleanest election in decades.
Presidential CandidatesGoodluck Jonathan, incumbentMuhammadu Buhari, former military rulerNuhu Ribadu, former anti-corruption fighterIbrahim Shekarau, Kano governor16 othersProfile: Goodluck Jonathan Profile: Muhammadu Buhari Profile: Ibrahim Shekarau Profile: Nuhu Ribadu
Mr Jonathan is the first head of state from the oil-producing Niger Delta region.
In addition to Mr Buhari, he is facing a challenge from former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu and Kano state governor Ibrahim Shekarau, though both are seen as rank outsiders.
While his People’s Democratic Party lost seats in a parliamentary election last week, Mr Jonathan has enjoyed a lead in opinion polls.
The two main opposition parties – fielding Mr Buhari and Mr Ribadu – had tried to agree a formal alliance for the presidential poll, but talks broke down.
The relatively successful conduct of the parliamentary election has increased confidence in the ability of the electoral commission, Inec, to ensure a fair presidential vote.
However, bomb blasts and other attacks have killed dozens in the run-up to the polls.
With 73 million registered voters, Nigeria has the biggest electorate on the continent.
“If Nigeria gets it right, it will impact positively on the rest of the continent and show the rest of the world that Africa is capable of managing its electoral processes,” said Mr Kufuor.
“If Nigeria gets it wrong, it will have a negative influence on the continent with dire consequences.”
Nigeria: A nation divided
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has won all elections since the end of military rule in 1999. It won two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states last time. But having a southerner – President Goodluck Jonathan – as its candidate in the presidential elections may lose it some votes in the north.
Nigeria’s 160 million people are divided between numerous ethno-linguistic groups and also along religious lines. Broadly, the Hausa-Fulani people based in the north are mostly Muslims. The Yorubas of the south-west are divided between Muslims and Christians, while the Igbos of the south-east and neghbouring groups are mostly Christian or animist. The Middle Belt is home to hundreds of groups with different beliefs, and around Jos there are frequent clashes between Hausa-speaking Muslims and Christian members of the Berom community.
Despite its vast resources, Nigeria ranks among the most unequal countries in the world, according to the UN. The poverty in the north is in stark contrast to the more developed southern states. While in the oil-rich south-east, the residents of Delta and Akwa Ibom complain that all the wealth they generate flows up the pipeline to Abuja and Lagos.
Southern residents tend to have better access to healthcare, as reflected by the greater uptake of vaccines for polio, tuberculosis, tetanus and diphtheria. Some northern groups have in the past boycotted immunisation programmes, saying they are a Western plot to make Muslim women infertile. This led to a recurrence of polio, but the vaccinations have now resumed.
Female literacy is seen as the key to raising living standards for the next generation. For example, a newborn child is far likelier to survive if its mother is well-educated. In Nigeria we see a stark contrast between the mainly Muslim north and the Christian and animist south. In some northern states less than 5% of women can read and write, whereas in some Igbo areas more than 90% are literate.
Nigeria is Africa’s biggest oil producer and among the biggest in the world but most of its people subsist on less than $2 a day. The oil is produced in the south-east and some militant groups there want to keep a greater share of the wealth which comes from under their feet. Attacks by militants on oil installations led to a sharp fall in Nigeria’s output during the last decade. But in 2010, a government amnesty led thousands of fighters to lay down their weapons.
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