UN climate talks hang in balance

By Richard Black

Environmental campaigners were hopeful of progress being made in Cancun

Prospects for a deal at the UN climate summit appear to be receding, with countries clashing on principle as the meeting entered its final day.

Japan and Russia look set to maintain their opposition to further emission cuts under the Kyoto Protocol, which is a major demand of developing countries.

Blocs also clashed over a proposed fund to help poor nations deal with climate impacts and low-carbon development.

One delegate described the latest draft texts as “worse than Copenhagen”.

The money wrangle concerns the proposed “Green Fund” – a vehicle that would gather and distribute funds running to perhaps $100bn (£63bn) per year by 2020.

During overnight discussions, the US, EU and Japan stuck to their line that the World Bank must administer the fund.

For developing countries, this is unacceptable, as they view the bank as a western-run institution.

Some – especially the Latin American Alba bloc, spear-headed by Bolivia – also object to the Green Fund as currently conceived, because they believe western nations have a duty to pay up from the public purse, whereas the fund calls for money to be raised through levies on carbon trading, taxes on aviation, or other “innovative mechanisms”.

Bolivia’s stance is not popular with all other developing countries, with Costa Rica saying it was “leading the process to delay the discussion”

A number of world leaders – as many as 20 – scheduled phone calls to Japanese Prime Minister Naoko Kan, in an attempt to get him to soften Japan’s position on the Kyoto Protocol.

‘Washed away’

UK Prime Minister David Cameron held a conversation with the premier.

Environmental groups took out an advertisement in the Financial Times asking whether Japan’s stance meant the Kyoto Protocol had been “washed away” – a reference to the acclaimed Japanese animation Spirited Away.

But Japanese sources said Mr Kan was sticking to his guns.

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The government is being pressed by business leaders to hold firm on this issue; and giving ground would be seen as a concession to China at a time when the two countries are clashing over disputed islands and supplies of rare earth elements, a key ingredient of some electronic devices.

It appears none of the leaders has put in a call to Moscow, whose opposition to further cuts under the protocol appears just as solid as Japan’s.

India offered beleaguered delegates a ray of optimism by indicating it might be prepared to accept legally-binding constraints on its carbon emissions – but not yet.

However, the meanings of phrases such as “legally-binding” are subject to a range of interpretations, and it is clear that the Indian position will depend on other elements of any final package.

A number of nations wanted the pledges countries made around the time of last year’s Copenhagen summit to be “inscribed” into formal UN agreements, so that they could be reviewed and negotiated at a later date.

Several analyses have indicated the pledges do not add up to enough to keep the global average temperature rise since pre-industrial times below the 2C (3.6F) ceiling that many countries regard as the maximum “safe” level, let alone the 1.5C that others demand.

However, it appears this inscription is being resisted by a bloc of western nations. Campaigners cited Canada, Russia and Japan.

“This text reflects rich countries’ effort to obliterate the existing system for achieving science-based pollution cuts and replace it with a new pledge-based paradigm,” said Kate Horner, policy analyst at Friends of the Earth US.

“Such a paradigm, with rich countries polluting however much they like, would lead to extreme destabilisation of the planet’s climate system and unacceptable impacts on human civilisation.”

The talks are due to conclude at 6pm local time on Friday (0000 GMT Saturday).

But an overrun appears inevitable, with rumours suggesting the Mexican host government may even call formally for an extra day.

There is also a stand-off between Mexico and South Africa – hosts of next year’s meeting – as to who should run the UN climate process through next year, with neither apparently keen on the idea.

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