NoseDial App

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We have all done it. Drive down the highway with a coffee in hand, the other hand fumbling with the iPhone trying to call someone. Alas, we are now saved by a simple $0.99 app that will let us make that call with our nose!

NoseDial is easily is the weirdest iPhone app I have ever come across. For less than a buck this app will create some big icons on your screen of contact and allow you to use your nose to select them. I know that there are people out there that have a limited ability of use with their hands, but to dial with their nose?

You will still have to unlock your phone with your fingers and actually tap the icon of the app to load it, but I guess it’s a step in the right direction.

tech.nocr.atNoseDial App originally appeared on tech.nocr.at on 2010/12/26.

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Doorbell Control

doorbell-control.png

Do you find that your doorbell system lacks that little bit of luster? Tired of it doing nothing more than ringing when pressed? Hardware hacker Nicholas Skinner felt the same way and decided to do something about it. By using the Synapse RD Engine which is easily scriptable by using Python he took his door bell to the next level. His doorbell now does all these cool things:

  • Sense Bell Press – Allowing for triggering of other events on press, such as additional remote ringers in other parts of the house, computer popup notification and possibly cameras / camera display (e.g. via scart triggering on TV) etc in the future.
  • Disable Bell Ringer – From either a remote physical switch or PC (for periods when we do not want to be disturbed by doorstep salesmen).
  • Ring Bell – Allowing the bell to keep ringing for a certain minimum duration even if the button is just pressed quickly to save missing callers who do not hold in the button for an adequate duration.

Nicholas has a complete write up on his site here.

tech.nocr.atDoorbell Control originally appeared on tech.nocr.at on 2010/12/26.

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The Unwelcome Return of Platform Dependencies

Editor’s Note: The following guest post is written by a Silicon Valley CEO. Frank Dupree is a pen name

In the late 1990s, the rise of the browser was supposed to usher in an era of unprecedented opportunity for startups. A great part of that increased opportunity came as a result of the significant reduction in platform dependencies. No longer did the users’ operating system dictate their access to services or information. Even a behemoth like Microsoft was fighting hand-to-hand combat with small startups for the first time in decades. Fast forward ten years, and its 1985 all over again.

But even as the risks of dependencies become better understood by startups and investors, the ascent of Facebook and Twitter seem to point to an ever increasing number of startups with significant business dependencies. Recent changes to both Facebook and Twitter show that neither startups nor their investors can assume much when it comes to support for a given API in the future. Today, even the OS seems subject to dramatic shifts in record time. One only need look to Apple’s iOS to see how dramatic and unpredictable developments can change the landscape for startups, customers and investors.

Today, most startups build with significant external platform dependencies, whether it is Facebook, iOS, Google Apps or Twitter. There are a few types of dependencies. A simple distinction might be to call a dependency on a platform symbiotic or parasitic. Symbiotic dependencies are those for which both sides agree to terms of the dependency and for which both sides seem to derive a benefit. Developers on Facebook’s platform, for example. The most successful here being Zynga, which grew completely and—probably for the team and its investors—nervously within the Facebook ecosystem.

But some dependencies are parasitic. As such, the problem is considerably more sticky when a startup forms an unwelcome dependency. Consider Meebo’s initial products which violated IM network terms of service by “hacking” into the major IM networks. Meebo has had to re-invent itself as a website check-in and sharing platform and at considerable cost (the startup has just announced its most recent round of financing taking it to over $70M in total funding).

In fact, a great portion of the “aggregation” genre of startups have troubling dependencies on larger players who often consider their products either a violation of service terms or simply the next feature on the product roadmap. Take the social media aggregation tools like TweetDeck and Seesmic. It has become clear that even players like Twitter or Facebook who offer generous API access can inadvertently step on the toes of startups in its ecosystem with a new product release. For Seesmic, this appears to mean a third pivot for the startup. The company started as a video commenting platform for blogs, moved into the desktop client social aggregation business and with Twitter’s recent redesign jumped into the plugin (aka, longtail) and enterprise user space (see recent partnership with SalesForce.com and plugin announcements). So for early platforms like Twitter, players like Seesmic and TweetDeck exist in a grey space between symbiotic and parasitic for the platform.

Then there are the 100% parasitic players, including companies like Rapleaf. Rapleaf has a dubious reputation because it built its business on the aggressive and surreptitious collection of social network data and matched it to email addresses. Recently both Facebook and Linkedin threatened legal recourse unless the company ceased crawling and scraping their user data and expunged all existing data collected from their networks maintained on over 650 million email addresses. As a result, two weeks ago Rapleaf agreed to stop providing its customers with information from both networks. That can’t be good for business.

But it is likely even worse for the startups who had based much if not all of their products on data they were buying from Rapleaf, sort of a double dependency. Take Gist, Etacts and Rapportive. All three of these startups were dependent on Rapleaf to present social network information (photos, titles, updates, etc.) alongside emails, mostly Gmail. When their Rapleaf data stopped providing Facebook and Linkedin data, the startups were left only with what appeared to be that which they had cached prior to the cut-off this month. And so it may be no surprise that within just a couple of weeks of the Rapleaf changes Gist is reportedly in talks to sell itself to RIM and Etacts has announced its sale to SalesForce.com (rumored for $6 million). One wonders if the acquiring companies fully understood the dependencies these startups had to Rapleaf. (Prediction: Rapportive also will be forced to sell very soon).

There is an alternative to parasitic access to a platform, but it can be expensive. You can build your own data from scratch or get access to it through painstaking partnerships if it is critical to your business. You might not grow as fast as you otherwise would, but at least you can control your own destiny. Even for startups that are successful in building their business within a platform dependency, such as Zynga, one of the most important things they must do as they grow is to mitigate their dependency on the platform.

For startups and investors, however, the lure and benefits of developing on other’s platforms with or without permission may be too great to avoid. When it comes to acquiring those critical first users, it takes an Odysseian-level of cunning (or foolishness) to avoid the siren’s song of platforms like Facebook. Building on Facebook reduces both the cost of development and provides direct access to a massive user base. And what are the other options? Even if you put aside the costs of going it alone, a significant portion of startups will be faced with taking on significant dependencies for their success. How many mobile OSes can there be? Forget startups, after iOS and Android, even the future of big players like Microsoft, Nokia and Palm seems uncertain in the mobile OS space.

So in the future it will likely be that the most successful startups will be those which are best able to navigate the minefield of platform dependencies. And while the benefits of platforms like iOS, Facebook and Twitter are significant to reduce development costs and increase access to customers, one can’t help but lament the squashing of the promise we got with our first browsers: a world where startups and the behemoths of industry alike fought on more or less equal terms. But increasingly it is once again becoming a platform world. And the companies who control the platforms, controls the profits.

Photo credit: Flickr/uub


The Top 40 iPhone Apps of 2010

Editor’s note: This guest post is written by Alex Ahlund, the former CEO and founder of AppVee and AndroidApps, which were acquired by mobile application directory Appolicious. You can read his previous iPhone app picks here and here

The iTunes App Store is huge. More than 300,000 apps huge. I’ve watched this monster start from nothing and turn into a billion-dollar industry in only a few short years. We’ve been approaching this point for some time now, but it’s more apparent than ever that app exposure is of critical importance. A healthy majority of iOS app users discover new applications directly from their device as opposed to using iTunes. If you look specifically at the iPhone, the amount of real estate for discovery is only available to a very small percentage of the total apps.

There are currently 20 overall categories, with Games offering an additional 20 subcategories. Each subcategory is broken into three lists and displays a max of 100 apps on the iPhone. Throw in a small number from the Top 25 and Featured lists and you wind up with roughly 12,000 apps being shown at one time. This works out to only about 4% of all apps that receive visibility. One can browse beyond this number on iTunes, but that quickly becomes an overwhelming, laborious task.

The expectation is that the market will dictate an app’s worth, but it doesn’t always work out that way. If you look at the top lists, they are littered with clones, cheap knockoffs and impulse grabs. Ninety-nine cent buys are just too tempting. Without proper exposure (and potentially more appropriate pricing schemes), many truly great apps never see the light of day.

With that said, I’ve compiled what I believe to be the best apps that have come out this year. Some got well-deserved exposure, while others were lost in the shuffle. The difficult part of assembling a “best of” list is striking a balance between apps with mainstream appeal and those with real innovation. There are a number of factors that took place in the selection (such as the merits of an app itself, not just the usefulness of an established service it utilizes) and not every good app could make the cut.

I present the top apps of 2010:

Top iPhone apps:

1. Instagram: Take a photo or select one from your library, apply a visual effect to it and then post it to Facebook, Twitter, Flickr, Tumblr, or Foursquare. While there are plenty of photo filter applications out there, Instagram stands apart because of how easy it is to get a unique and professional result. Indie styling without the need for a vintage camera or Photoshop skills.

2. Chase Mobile: While I don’t use Chase for banking, this app deserves some serious recognition. For an industry that isn’t known for pushing the technology envelope, Chase did something pretty cool here. Instead of going to a banking center or ATM, you can simply take a picture of the front and back of a check and the amount is deposited into your account. Beats driving to a bank.

3. Price Check by Amazon: Sure, there are several barscanning apps out there. Some work better than others, but Price Check is just about flawless. Considering I buy nearly everything from Amazon (from vitamins to electronics), I may be a bit biased. But regardless, this app offers an easy, effective way to check the price of physical goods in a store to see if you can get it cheaper online.

4. Find My iPhone: This was a great move by Apple to release the Find My iPhone feature without requiring a paid MobileMe account. With this, you can see where your phone is on a map, display a message, lock the phone or completely wipe it.

5. Google Voice: Long awaited, Google Voice has been in approval limbo for ages. I thought it would never see the light of day (due possibly to objections from AT&T) but to most people’s surprise, it was approved. With Google Voice, you can replace your calling plan with a unique number that includes dialing, texting, voicemail, and message transcription.

6. Twitter: After acquiring Tweetie, Twitter relaunched this as the official Twitter app for the iPhone. It remains the standard bearer. How many times a day do you pull down to refresh?

7. Dropbox: I’m a big proponent of the digital nomad lifestyle, so I always stay backed up on the cloud. I want to be able to access, view, retrieve and share any of my files whether I have my computer with me or not, and the Dropbox app helps me do that. It does require a Dropbox account, but its free for up to 2gb of storage.

8. SpringPad: While the Evernote app is great (I use it to catalog most of my notes and ideas), SpringPad really steps up mobile notetaking. You can write a quick memo, take a snapshot, scan a barcode of an item to remember, or have the app search nearby shops and restaurants to add. There are a lot more options than Evernote and it seems a bit speedier to quickly unload a thought.

9. Foursquare: Okay, this one didn’t come out this year, but any Best iPhone Apps list would be incomplete without it. Checking in, which seemed so quirky a year ago, is now an obsession with millions of people, and they can thank Foursquare. Tell people where you are, get mayorships, badges, and maybe some other rewards. The latest update just added comments and photo checkin capabilities. (Gowalla is still looking good too).

10. Skyfire Web Browser: I haven’t met anyone yet who doesn’t hate the fact that the iPhone lacks Flash support. While Skyfire is by no means a perfect solution, it offers us a way to watch Flash videos from the web on our iPhone. Unfortunately, it does not support Flash games and not all sites with Flash video are supported.

11. Kindle: I’m one of those people who prefers reading off an e-ink Kindle to an LCD iPad. For the millions like me, the Kindle app makes a perfect companion. However, while I don’t take my Kindle everywhere, I always have my phone. Just boot up the app and you can continue reading from where you last left off.

12. Word Lens: Word Lens is one of the few apps that really shows the potential of the iPhone. Aim your phone at anything with standard printed writing on it in another language (a sign, newspaper, etc.) and Word Lens will replace it with translated copy. The amazing thing is that it will do it in realtime. Currently it only supports English to Spanish translations (and visa versa), but greater language support is on the way. It has a few quirks, but the speed and accuracy is very impressive.

13. Groupon: This is a solid companion app to the daily-deal service Groupon, which offers up a deeply discounted product or service for a limited time. The app makes the process easier to manage without the need of the website. There are a few ancillary features like Discussion, but the real reason to keep it around is to easily check out the daily deals.

14. Hashable: If you are a heavy networker or just like introducing people, Hashable is the app for you. It lets you introduce people via Twitter or email and annotate all your meetings with hashtags like #lunch or #justmet so that you can go back later and search through them. You also get “Hashcred” every time you use the app, which pushes you up the leaderboard. This is a business app, but it feels fun.

Top Entertainment Apps:

15. Netflix: I’m a huge fan of Netflix streaming and this app is a great way to watch streamed content right on your iPhone. I was expecting movie streaming to be slow over 3G but was surprised to see that after a short loading period, it was extremely smooth. Quality settings are reduced depending on the connection, but all in all, it works great.

16. Hulu: I was on the fence about the Hulu app since Netflix covers so many of my media needs. This app requires you to subscribe to the Hulu Plus service, which is the same price as a Netflix streaming account. However, Hulu contains a lot of great TV content that will fill in many of the holes left by Netflix. The app itself feels solid and the streaming quality seems to be on par with Netflix in terms of looks and speed.

17. TuneIn Radio: The problem with Internet radio has been that despite being awesome, it hasn’t allowed access to local radio. TuneIn Radio lets you listen in on thousands of real radio stations across the country. With a bunch of features like the ability to pause and rewind live radio, it makes a great addition next to Pandora and Slacker.

18. Rhapsody: Rhapsody is an all-you-can-eat music listening service. For the longest time, iPhone/iPod Rhapsody users have been left out in the cold if they wanted to take their songs with them. But now, with the Rhapsody app, you can listen to as much music from the service as you like without needing an active Internet connection.

19. TextPics: Emoji are fun to add to text messages to other iPhone users—the problem is that your iPhone-less friends can’t see them. TextPics tries to solve this issue by giving you a bunch of ASCII “drawings” that you can text or include in emails. The best part is they are made up of standard text characters, so anyone can receive them on any device.

Top iPhone games:

20. Angry Birds: It’s not easy to ignore Angry Birds—you’ll usually find it hanging out at that #1 top spot. It’s one of the first phenomenons to come out of the iPhone world, spawning seasonal versions, toys and even a movie deal. I doubt it even needs a description, so if for some reason you’re just now crawling out from under a rock, go and download Angry Birds.

21. Plants vs Zombies: I came from the casual games industry so I’ve been a fan of PopCap for a long time. PvZ is a streamlined, linear tower defense game. Your goal is to defend your home from a swarm of zombies using a variety of different plants from common pea shooters to exploding landmine plants. With a simple, fast paced method for earning money to upgrade your defenses, this game is an entertaining blend of action, strategy and zombies.

22. Trade Nations: This is one of my favorite freemium games on the iPhone. In some ways, it plays like a cooperative real-time strategy game. You place houses to create workers, develop timber yards to bring in lumber, harvest wheat for food, etc. It’s a rewarding experience best played in short, productive bursts. Every action takes time, so it’s always interesting to check in and do a little management during a break.

23. Gun Bros: Most duel-stick survival shooters on the iPhone are simple, shallow experiences. Gun Bros. takes the genre to the next level by offering a freemium upgrade system, a unique visual style and a robust leveling mechanic. If you’re a fan of fast paced top-down shooters, this is the one to grab.

24. Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars: I’m generally not a fan of ports but this time it was done right. GTA: CW is a faithful translation of its Nintendo DS counterpart. The game is presented in a 3D overhead perspective, combining elements from the original GTA and GTA 4. Despite having an appearance similar to the former, it actually plays more like the latter and those familiar with Liberty City will find themselves right at home here.

25. N.O.V.A 2: If you’ve ever wanted to play Halo on the iPhone, this is the closest you’ll get for now. Like the original, you battle your way through a lush Sci-Fi environment while utilizing a huge arsenal of futuristic weaponry and powers, like the ability to slow down time. With improved graphics, more expansive environments, unique game components like piloting vehicles, and an array of visual effects, N.O.V.A 2 is sure to provide fans of the original, as well as newcomers, with an engrossing experience.

26. Puzzle Agent: This is why I like doing these lists. Games like Puzzle Agent deserve recognition for stepping outside the box and delivering an engrossing experience. You play as an FBI agent from the Puzzle Investigation Division in a game that combines elements of classic adventure games with thought-provoking puzzles. Together with quirky artwork and good voice acting, this is one to try out.

27. Rhythm Spirit: Rhythm Spirit is the sleeper hit of the year. It was loved by critics, but flew under the radar for many iPhone gamers. The game is a rhythm-based fighting game featuring a rich storyline based on Japanese folklore. Imaginative characters, unique gameplay and a genuinely awesome techno-zen soundtrack make Rhythm Spirit a must have for both fighting and rhythm game fans.

28. Ragdoll Blaster 2: Trajectory games have been all the rage for the iPhone. And while the genre has seen plenty of below average apps, Ragdoll Blaster 2 stands out from the crowd. With whimsical, steampunk-inspired graphics and tons of variety in level design and background art, RB2 is a deep and rewarding puzzler.

29. Spiderman: Total Mayhem: The world of Spiderman makes for one of the best gaming environments, despite the mixed results of many past attempts. Total Mayhem for the iPhone succeeds in offering up a very attractive, highly playable web-slinging experience. This solid beat-em-up gives you all of Spidey’s skills as you swing through cityscapes, web-up bad guys, and engage in some good ol’ fashion fisticuffs. Total Mayhem is visually fantastic and features truly excellent fighting mechanics.

30. Mirror’s Edge: I’ve been fascinated with parkour ever since the movie Yamakazis came out. I even signed up to train in it with more or less unfortunate results. So for now, Mirror’s Edge is the closest I’ll get to spending my weekends leaping from rooftops. I was a big fan of the game on consoles, so I initially approached this iPhone adaptation warily. However, I quickly discovered that this version is surprisingly competent with intuitive controls and an effective, device-friendly side-scrolling perspective. Smooth, flowing animation and beautifully sharp 3D graphics evocative of the original console version contributes to the uniquely satisfying, running and jumping experience.

31. Cut the Rope: I didn’t want to like this game. It shot up to the #1 position on the App Store after only a day. I thought there surely had to be some foul play at work. But the truth is, regardless of whether or not “creative” marketing methods were used, the game is pretty damn fun. The objective is to get a piece of candy, dangling from a rope, into a cute monster’s mouth. It’s not as easy as it sounds. Plenty of obstacles get in your way and before long, you’ll find yourself absolutely addicted to helping the little guy get his sugary fix.

32. Fruit Ninja: Some games are just fun for their sheer mindless simplicity – Fruit Ninja is one of those games. As 3D fruits hop into view, you run your finger across the screen to cut them in half—simple as that. Slice up the endless onslaught of fruit while avoiding the game-ending bombs. Each session begins at a slow, steady pace with the action gradually becoming more intense and frantic as you progress.

33. Osmos: There is a certain zen-like satisfaction you get from playing Osmos. You control an amoeba-like blob that must consume smaller entities to grow, and then expel them to move. You’ve got to be alert to maintain this careful balancing act, but the meditative lull of Osmos’ ambiance creates a uniquely relaxing, trancey experience.

34. Smurfs’ Village: When it comes to freemium management games currently available on the App Store, the experience is too often shallow and predictable. This isn’t the case with Smurf’s Village. While the objective is still to build and develop your village, the game is jam packed with tasks, mini-games and even a loose narrative. Smurf’s Village features great music and excellent, hi-res graphics that are sure to instill a warm sense of nostalgia to anyone who spent the 80′s watching Saturday morning cartoons.

Top Technical Achievement games:

The iPhone has come a long way in terms of processing power and developers are starting to figure out how to get the most out of the hardware. The following games are truly impressive examples of what the iPhone is capable of:

35. Modern Combat 2: Black Pegasus: It’s no simple task to bring a console-quality first-person shooter to a device the size of your hand. It’s a careful balance of processing, assets, and usability. Fortunately, Modern Combat does a highly commendable job of pulling it off. High-res graphics, impressive visual effects, and detailed environments give Modern Combat 2 more than enough reason to be considered a technical achievement this year.

36. Star Wars Arcade: Falcon Gunner: You are going to want to play this gam ein a swivel chair. The 360-degree graphics take advantage of the iPhone’s gyroscope to let you swivel around and shoot TIE Fighters from the Millenium Falcon’s gun turret. The gameplay is pretty basic, but the 360-effect and 3D graphics put you in the action like no other game. You can also play in augmented reality mode which switches the background to your camera view, making it look like the TIE Fighters are in your room or flying through the air.

37. Samurai 2: Vengeance: I love games that really push style and character, and Samurai 2: Vengeance does just that. Visually, the game looks like it could be a younger sibling of Capcom’s console gem, Okami. The art is like a combination of Japanese brush painting and anime, giving Vengeance an amazingly rich and distinct style. Thick outlines, flat colors and exaggerated motion create a unique manga look that boldly stands out in the App Store.

38. Real Racing 2: The first Real Racing took the App Store by storm when it was released last year. It was one of the few apps that showed what the iPhone was really capable of. Real Racing 2 doesn’t disappoint in keeping that tradition alive. RR2 is the best looking racing game available for the iPhone. From the detailed tracks and environments, to the actual licensed cars themselves, this will be sure to impress even the most cynical of driving sim enthusiasts. While Real Racing 2 has packed in even more play modes, multiplayer options and cars, it still uses the near flawless control scheme options of its predecessor.

39. Rage HD: I generally dislike the “on-rails” mechanic for any game. If I absolutely had to play an on-rails shooter, I’d more likely head on down to the coin laundry and play some Operation Wolf. But that does not diminish the fact that Rage HD is currently one of the two best looking games in the App Store today. Sharp textures, dynamic lighting, and high poly rendering make this an impressive feat. Now if they would just pry us off these rails we could have a seriously awesome shooter on our hands.

40. Infinity Blade: Infinity Blade is by far the best looking game ever to appear on the iPhone. Developed by Epic using the same engine that powered the incredible tech demo, Epic Citadel, it is no surprise that Infinity Blade is visually on par with modern console games. The gameplay consists of tapping and swiping the screen in a variety swashbuckling maneuvers as you fight against a succession of guards attempting to prevent you from reaching the God King. In addition to the combat, the game also features some interesting RPG elements and a functional storyline to provide context for all the mayhem. And though it doesn’t offer the deepest or most fulfilling gameplay, Infinity Blade succeeds in ushering in the new visual benchmark for high-end iPhone gaming.

Tell us which apps you would put on this list.


What Facebook Can Give Back To The Web

In Time’s Person of the Year 2010 article on Mark Zuckerberg, one fact shouts out to me above all others: 1 in 4 Web pages in the United States is now viewed behind the walls of Facebook.

I enjoy Facebook and would be happy spending a quarter of my Web life there, if I could leave Facebook for the other 75%. But even if I log out completely, most of the Web’s most popular sites are tied to Facebook, through Share or Like or Connect buttons. Facebook is not just another Web site: it is a service that “Facebookizes” every Web site it touches, making me bring all of my friends with me, like luggage. It’s disconcerting being on a Web site that I’m used to browsing anonymously, and seeing my friends’ faces there. And so I have a holiday wish: Facebook, let me dance if I want to, let me leave my friends behind.

For the last twenty years, we’ve enjoyed One Web that is united through the common policy of letting us be whoever we want to be, wherever we go. One Web allows us at times to be cooler than we are in real life, aspirational, anonymous, and/or fanatical about a particular subject. And that is why the Web is wonderful.

Over the last five years, Facebook added a new hat to the One Web haberdashery, by giving us the ability to be a person who is a friend online with the people we have known in real life (as well as people we’ve never met). In 2010 Facebook added Instant Personalization, with the explicit goal of letting us be our Facebook selves everywhere. But in so doing, we have lost the On/Off button: I love being my Facebook self some places, but how do I turn it off on-the-fly?

This presents an opportunity for Facebook to give back to the Web: please let us take off our Facebook hats whenever we want by replacing the Connect button with an On/Off button that lets us see clearly whether we are being Facebookized on any given page of the Web.

One Web is as old as the Web itself: The 1993 New Yorker joke was that on the Internet no one knows you’re a dog. But now you can’t go anywhere without people knowing your pedigree, where you went to obedience school, and the status of your latest puppy love.

What’s wrong with that, you ask? Well, I don’t know how you roll… but I personally spend a lot of my time on the Internet doing things that I’m not ashamed of in principle, but don’t want broadcast to my mom, former schoolmates, and coworkers. Mostly I’d just bore them to tears because almost nobody I know gives a rat’s ass about my obsessive love of Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks, Showtime TV shows like LOOK, or photos of panda babies. But also… I admit that I waste a lot of time on the Web when I “should” be doing other things. If you put together all the time I’ve spent just looking up song lyrics, watching videos of kittens, and studying cupcake recipes—all perfectly innocent and life-affirming activities, I might add—some small-minded people might think badly of me.

So imagine that every time you looked at any Web page, Facebook could tell all your friends what you were looking at in real time. Would you be OK with that? From a technical point of view, Facebook could do it right now. They have the data from a large percentage of the top websites; they just aren’t exposing it yet. When we talk about the benefits of anonymity, for the average person it amounts to their boss not knowing how much time they’re spending on fantasy football or shoe shopping at work. (Vibram Five Fingers for the win!)

In Facebook’s march to a billion users by 2012, Facebook seems to be everywhere we Web users want to be. Someday soon more than half our Web page views could be on the Facebook-Enhanced Web (FEW) instead of the rest of the World-Wide Web (WWW) that Tim Berners-Lee gave to the world so we could roam it freely like pandas in the bamboo forest.

Remember, the WWW consists of millions of websites, of which Facebook is now the world’s third biggest by unique users. However, if we measure by Web page views, Facebook is bigger than the next 99 websites combined, so the FEW is already huge.

We the Web users have chosen the FEW over the WWW for what seem like good reasons: Facebook promises us a spam-free, porn-free, crime-free world where we can do everything with people we know in real life. Who wouldn’t want that?

Proponents of a stable Web, for one. Facebook has spread its seed all over the Web now—with Facebook Connect and Share and Like buttons everywhere—so much that when Facebook goes down, the Web goes down. Facebook has bequeathed the WWW a single point of failure.

Note that Facebook did this without being closed: they have APIs, and buttons, and export mechanisms. They’re not closed; they’ve just redefined open. I’ve made my peace with the idea that Facebook will be the biggest service on The Open Internet; what we all should want to avoid is a future where Facebook is the Web. That would be as lame as spending eternity in a 1971 Ford Pinto with all of your friends.

Reliability issues aside, there’s a deeper principle at stake here. Facebook has divided the Web into two: the Web with Facebook (your friends), and the Web without Facebook (people cooler than your friends). Our friends are who we are
interested in, but they are not what we are interested in.

All the time we spend looking at repetitive posts and photos from people we already know, could be spent instead on the Web meeting new people who are interested in the same things we are. In other words, making cooler friends. Ambient Findability, as I like to call it, means that what (and who!) we find changes who (and what!) we become. Enabling that is what has always made the Web great.

So, in the spirit of One Web and Ambient Findability, I’m asking Facebook on behalf of all Web citizens to give us the benefits of being able to just look at things online without being tracked by you. Give us the option to treat Facebook like every other part of the Web, whenever we want, and I assure you it will benefit us all.

Give us an easy one-click way to truly and totally disconnect from Facebook Connect whenever we want. I’ll still spend just as much time on Facebook, I promise! But now I won’t have to see my friends’ faces every time I look up a restaurant review on Yelp, read the news on the New York Times, or wait for external modules to load on TechCrunch. It’s just an option, and an option confers value… I’m sure the vast majority of users love Facebook Connect and will continue to use it. But having the option to return the rest of One Web to its pre-Facebook status—useful but not fundamentally social—would be the best gift that Zuck could give back to the Web.

Editor’s note: Guest author Adam Rifkin is a Silicon Valley veteran who organizes a networking group for entrepreneurial engineers called 106 Miles. You can read his previous guest posts for TechCrunch here and follow him on Twitter @ifindkarma.


Santa Brings Bump Its Biggest Day Of Sharing Ever, Swapping 20 Photos A Second

As every iPhone developer knows, Christmas Day is the busiest day of the year, as millions of people unwrap their shiny new iPhones and promptly go on an app download spree (I’m sure Android sees a similar phenomenon). Which means it isn’t terribly surprising when Bump, a Sequoia-backed startup that makes it easy to share data between phones, says that today is the biggest day of traffic it’s ever had. Then again, the fact that people are currently sharing 20 photos per second is quite impressive.

Bump CEO David Lieb says that Bump’s traffic is currently 2.4 times as high as it was a week ago, and that the service is on pace for 2 million shared items today, with a peak load of 30 items per second (in addition to swapping photos, you can share music, contact information, and calendar events using Bump).

These numbers are especially interesting for one big reason — Lieb says this is the first time the company has disclosed any traffic stats at all. Granted, the data obviously isn’t representative of Bump’s daily average, but it still gives some context about usage of the service.

For those that haven’t used it, Bump lets you quickly swap data between two phones by simply tapping them together (both phones obviously have to be running the Bump application). Bump’s applications have been downloaded 25 million times across the iPhone and Android since the service launched.

Lieb says that even aside from today’s big numbers, Bump usage is on the rise. This has been driven in part by the launch of music sharing in November (which is already the second most-shared type of file, behind photos). And last Saturday the service enabled ‘long-distance connections’, which lets you exchange messages with friends in your address book and from Facebook, without having to actually physically ‘bump’ your phone with them.


With a New Version, FLUD Hopes to Take on Pulse And Flipboard as Your iPad News Reader

News aggregators and RSS feeds have been around for awhile now, but only with the rapid proliferation of touch technology on mobile devices and tablets, have we started moving closer to a truly appealing news feed experience.

For the average web user, the traditional staid design and text-and-headline-heavy interface of the RSS feed and feed aggregators have offered user experiences to be endured rather than enjoyed.

News apps for both the iPhone and iPad, like Pulse and Flipboard, have garnered quite a bit of attention of late for disrupting the aggregation and RSS reader experience by offering up new, intriguing ways of representing data. With interactive and clever designs that leave templates open enough to allow users to fill them with their own feeds and customized content, the publishing industry seems exciting again.

The success of these apps is largely due to the fact that developers are learning that a good news reader relies, first and foremost, on design. It may make us feel a bit superficial, but it’s true, with a seemingly never-ending supply of news, for aggregators and readers, it’s all about image. Give me an aesthetically-pleasing news filter that sloughs off that long list of text and headlines in favor of an organic and interactive interface, and I’ll show you an active (and happy) user.

But when it comes to news consumption, I’d rather look to feeds emanating from editorially directed and curated magazines and websites, rather than a template populated by Facebook and Twitter such as Flipboard—or a design and user experience that is a bit sexier than Pulse—and I’d love to have quality versions on my iPhone (that have true staying power). This is why I’ve recently become a fan of FLUD, which allows users to plug in feeds from favorite sites (like TechCrunch, ahem) and read, peruse, and share articles through a neatly-presented, tile-based interface—for free. And unlike Flipboad, FLUD is on both the iPad and iPhone—and it’s coming soon to Android and the desktop.

What’s great about FLUD is that it initially offers 25 FLUD-curated feeds to choose from, but the options are unlimited. You can add as many feeds as you’d like, filling FLUD’s template—which dominates sites’ specific CSS in a unifying, pretty design—through its list of featured feeds or by a simple keyword search, and a page is automatically created and filled with news from your chosen site. On your iPhone, each feed fits neatly on screen, which highlights each site’s content (something that’s likely pretty appealing to publications). FLUD also employs a scrubber that calls up a scroll bar, allowing you to quickly swipe past other stories. This puts the UX slightly above Pulse in eliminating that overwhelming mish-mash of feeds on a single screen.

Tapping on the boxes, which can be scrolled through vertically or horizontally, brings the summary of the story into view, whereupon you can choose to view the basic text, switch to the web page, read it in your browser, or read offline. You can “love” particular stories, influencing items that other FLUD readers who use the same feeds will see and share your favorite links via Facebook and Twitter.

With Flipboard recently being named the 2010 iPad app of the year by Apple, and as apps like Pulse continue to hold ground high in the App Store rankings, FLUD has some serious competition in the marketplace—adding to the pressure to incorporate social media feeds as actual sources of news, rather than simply means for sharing. Yet, as FLUD remains a boot-strapped enterprise at this point, the company has some ground to cover on apps like Flipboard, which already has $10.5 million in funding.

Though FLUD Founder & CEO Bobby Ghoshal says that the app has been adding a new user every 4 seconds in December, drawbacks remain. I’ve experienced a lack of compatibility with older iPhones (3GS and earlier) and some serious delays in loading as you move content around; these lags and glitches manifesting themselves in the daily FLUD experience will need to be fixed if the company expects to build on its early success.

As to how FLUD hopes to become profitable in 2011—a question many free news and media-oriented apps must answer—Ghoshal says that FLUD is intent on staying away from ads as a primary source of revenue, hoping to encourage potentially different models, like revenue sharing built through partnerships with publishers and local businesses in an effort to incentivize users to buy locally. That sounds like a stretch—a news aggregator subsisting on anything other than ads may be a pipe dream—but who knows?

Nonetheless, if it figures out its revenue model revenue models, FLUD may be establishing itself as a force to be reckoned with in the news feed arena. Next up: the addition of a rating system (like the one available in iTunes), and an increased focus on social media feeds.


UWall.Tv Turns YouTube Into Your Own MTV

Frustrated with how difficult it is to search YouTube for music videos, Argentinian web developer and Taggify.net co-founder Sebastian Vaggi has created UWall.tv. UWall.tv allows you to search YouTube by artist, song or by music category like Vevo, with the added benefit of creating a custom music video playlist based on your search. You can also share your UWall.tv music video finds on Facebook.

Once you set it motion, Uwall.tv plays your search-derived playlist chronologically without you having to refresh, whether you’re in full screen mode or not. Vaggi plans on creating more music categories and listing albums as well as artists and songs.

UWall.Tv is a simple solution for all those holiday parties spent drunkenly fumbling around YouTube for Jonathan Mann’s Greatest Hits. Take advantage of it while (or “if “for those in non-copyright compatible countries) you still can.


Flickr Should Have Built Instagram. But They Didn’t. Here’s Why.

Back in June, we reported on the departure of Kellan Elliott-McCrea from Yahoo. While not hugely known outside the developer community, we had received several tips indicating just how important Elliott-McCrea was to the Flickr team, where his role as “Architect” was supposedly “vital” to the service. So who better to answer questions about Flickr than Elliott-McCrea (who is now the VP of Engineering for Etsy), right? And that’s exactly what he’s done on Quora.

Specifically, someone asked the question: Why did Flickr miss the mobile photo opportunity that Instagram and picplz are pursuing? The mobile photo space is red-hot right now with several players beyond the two mentioned vying to become a common app on smartphones. And one of them, Instagram, was able to gain over a million users in less than three months. So why wasn’t Flickr, with all the resources of Yahoo behind them, able to dominate this space first?

The simple answer, according to Elliot-McCrea, is “Innovator’s dilemma”. That is, if Flickr had wanted to create a successful service that leveraged Twitter’s social graph, they would have had to sacrifice their own login system for that of Twitter’s — which until more recently was considered very insecure. “The Yahoo! Paranoids would have shut us down in a heart beat,” Elliot-McCrea says.

This is clearly a pain point for Elliot-McCrea as he was instrumental in creating the OAuth standard that Twitter and many other service now use to allow for third-party link-ups. So Flickr and Twitter linking up via OAuth should have happened right away, right? Nope. According to Elliot-McCrea, it took about two years — something which he detailed here.

But even with that link-up in place, there were several other factors that stopped Flickr from creating an Instagram-like service or experience. “Additionally we fell into the trap of thinking like an incumbent, we spent 6 months off and on talking to Twitter about preferred product placement rather then just shipping the integration we had built,” Elliot-McCrea writes. “We also spent *years* debating whether or not to build iPhone apps/iPhone optimized sites or bet on a HTML5/multi-device strategy,” he continues.

He also specifically calls out one Yahoo executive, Marco Boerries, as being particularly responsible for Yahoo’s lack of leadership in the mobile space. “Several Flickr internal attempts to build and ship native mobile experiences (going back to 2006) were squashed relentlessly. The Flickr iPhone app that eventually shipped was built by CL (Boerries “Connected Life” team),” Elliot-McCrea notes.

That is very much in line with a story I heard a few years ago that Yahoo was “rushing” to get a native app done for Flickr to secure the hot iPhone photo-sharing space. Instead, they dragged their feet and it took another year or so to get it out there.

So is this Yahoo’s failure? Another Quora answer by Flickr co-founder Stewart Butterfield sheds a bit of light on that. While the question asked isn’t directly related to the Flickr/Instagram idea, it is related to innovation at Flickr: Would Flickr have been more innovative since their acquisition if it had been Google that acquired them?

Impossible to know, but my instinct is that it would have made no difference. The problem at Yahoo! was being starved for resources and I’m pretty sure that would have happened at Google too,” Butterfield writes.

Elliot-McCrea also cautions that it wasn’t entirely Yahoo’s fault for missing the opportunity — as most people did. He cites a service called Radar as one that was trying to do something similar to the current mobile photo-sharing craze but never caught on. I know Radar well, I glowingly wrote about the service back in January of 2009, and loved their yes — Flickr — integration a couple months later. But they did fail to catch on, and their parent, Tiny Pictures, was sold to Shutterfly for a small price later in 2009.

And going forward: “It would actually be incredibly straightforward to build something like an Instagram on top of Flickr using the API, especially if you could convince Flickr to release an API to “Beehive” the friend finder tool, which among other things, benefits from Y! backdoor deal with Facebook,” Elliot-McCrea says.

The problem now is that Yahoo seems much more interested in “sunsetting” services to reduce costs rather than actually building new things once again. And that really, really worries me with regard to Flickr. We’ve heard some unconfirmed whispers of outside parties interested in purchasing the photo-sharing service from Yahoo. Given some of the light Elliot-McCrea just shed on internal workings there, perhaps we can only hope there’s something to those rumors.


Happy Birthday: Jesus Is almost Bigger than Angry Birds (TCTV)

How do you get more kids reading the Bible? The so-called “Jesus Phone” of course! A company called YouVersion launched a mobile, interactive version of the Bible two years ago that got some attention when it won the people’s choice DemoPit award at TechCrunch50 in 2009.

Today it runs on eight platforms, is in the top ten iTunes apps overall and has more than 12 million users across eight mobile platforms. It was bigger than Angry Birds at the time we shot the video below, and then Angry Birds had a great December. But hey, close to Angry Birds is still pretty good.

Those users have logged some four billion minutes reading the Bible inside the app, and the engagement is growing. The Church behind it, LifeChurch, thinks its users will log one billion more reading minutes in January alone. Apparently, January is a good time for evangelicals for the same reason it’s good for gyms: People are reflecting on the year ahead and making all sorts of resolutions to be a better person. Maybe it can catch up with the Birds once again?

I can’t say I get many pitches about Christian iPhone apps, so we caught up with Bobby Gruenewald to get more info on what the Bible is like in the 21st century. The application has leveraged social media in some interesting ways, but I was most impressed that Gruenewald convinced publishers to let his company offer a digital version for free. (Maybe Spotify should give Gruenewald a call?)

YouVersion sees the mission as a spiritual not a money-making one. But given the uptake, there’s certainly an opportunity for someone to make money here.


Mobclix: Android Impressions Grew By 420 Percent In 2010; iPhone Up 347 Percent

Recently acquired mobile ad exchange Mobclix is releasing its 2010 report, which takes a look at the top trend in the mobile advertising space. 2010 has been a big year for mobile advertising companies and startups, with the Google-AdMob deal approved, Apple’s Quattro buy and iAds launch, Millennial’s fast growth and more. Unsurprisingly, the trend that tops Mobclix’s report is the platform war between Apple and Google over the iPhone versus Android. Mobclix says that impressions on Android phones via Mobclix’s platform grew by 420 percent over the past year whereas iPhone impressions grew by 347 percent for the same 12 month period.

Another interesting trend highlighted by the report is that real-time bidding for mobile ad space is becoming more widely adopted by publishers and developers as the optimal way to fill space. Mobclix says that real time bidding inventory is expected to make up 10% – 15% of total ad buys for 2011. In fact, 50% of all targeted online ad display platforms will be powered through real time platforms by 2015.

Mobclix also says that customer retention is 2.7 times better with push-notifications, with apps opened up to 228% more with notifications. Mobclix adds that weekly session times have increased by 103%, according to a survey the company conducted.

Rich media ads have proven to pay more, says Mobclix, highlighting the launch of iAd as a sign that these interactive ad formats are attractive to advertisers. Approximately 37% of impressions on the Mobclix exchange were for Rich Media units, a 115% increase over 2009.

In terms of app breakdown, the startup comments that Games are continuing to dominate the mobile app experience, reporting that 70% of the chart-topping applications—in both usage and gross revenue—are games. The average smartphone user spends 2.8 hours per day using applications and 3 in 5 people first turn to an app before searching the web, according to a recent Mobclix survey.

Information provided by CrunchBase


Today Is The Last Day For Crunchie Nominations!

The Crunchie Awards, which are co-hosted by TechCrunch, GigaOm and VentureBeat, are pretty much my favorite part about TechCrunch. That being said, today is everyone’s last day to nominate your favorite companies, products and people (yourself included) for one of the 20 different awards categories.

Act fast, because at 11:59PM PST on Christmas Eve (tonight) our developer Vineet Thandar is going to flip the switch from his makeshift office in Lake Tahoe and you’ll miss your chance to have a say in who deserves to be celebrated for the best tech accomplishments of 2010.

And don’t forget about attending the Awards Ceremony itself, happening at the Palace Of Fine Arts Theater in San Francisco on January 21, 2011 at 7:30 pm PST, and the after party at the Exploratorium. Our last batch of tickets sold out almost immediately, so keep a watchful eye out for the next release.

See you there!


Theopeninter.net, A Visual Guide To Net Neutrality

With Theopeninter.net, web designer Michael Ciarlo has given you the holiday gift of being able to explain to the less web savvy members of your friends and family what net neutrality means (simply, and with visuals) and why exactly laymen should care about the FCC’s recent attempts to create “enforcable” Internet regulations.

Ciarlo describes the inspiration behind the site as stemming from a conceptual expansion of already existing situations where ISPs exert control over access.

“In November my console was updated to include ESPN3. To my surprise, much of the content was unavailable, despite being an XBOX Live customer with a broadband Internet connection. As it turns out, Time Warner Cable had disabled much of my access to this feature, on a device purchased independently of their services, because I didn’t pay for a cable package that included ESPN3. I was angered and frustrated that my ISP had blocked features of a product they did not sell or control.”

Granted there’s a lot more complexity surrounding the issue than “All ISPs are inherently evil and want to charge you for Skype” Theopeninter.net does, as Reddit commenter lolinyerface (yeah I know) put it, “The job of showing how things we get for free now, could one day be per item additional cost.”

Explains Ciarlo:

“I created TheOpenInter.net to depict a time in the future when ISPs control the Internet and all data is not downloaded equally. While creating the site’s design, I had the idea to bundle Netflix and Hulu as a package ISPs required you to buy. Halfway through development, I questioned the reality of my portrayal. Was I too far off-base?

Then to my surprise a Wired article titled “Mobile Carriers Dream of Charging per Page” showed almost the exact same scenario. While there is no documentation within the article to prove wireless carriers have any current plans to implement a similar pricing structure, the fact that evidence exists to suggest its consideration is frightening.”

The ghost of Christmas future, indeed.


Just In Time To Pig Out For The Holidays, Foodspotting Beta Hits On Android

It was exactly one year ago today that Foodspotting sent out the first test build of their app to a few iPhone users. Today they’re finally doing the same for Android — and they’re opening the beta up to everyone.

Yes, the application which allows you to take pictures of your favorite foods and share them with a community of foodies is finally moving beyond the iPhone. When we first wrote about the app last March, people were already asking for an Android version in the comments. But the small team had their hands full developing the iPhone version and working on their website. But this past August, when announcing their new round of seed funding, Foodspotting revealed that work had begun on the Android version. And now here it is.

Be warned that it is very much a beta version of the app. As such, they haven’t released it in the Market yet. Instead, you have to turn on the ability to run non-Market apps on your device and visit this link from your Android phone to install it.

And while the app is missing some of the functionality of its iPhone sibling (namely much of the in-app social stuff), it looks very nice and fulfills the main purpose of Foodspotting: spotting food. It also brings the ability to syndicate out your food pictures to Twitter, Facebook, and even Foursquare (their newest integration).

So when you’re pigging out tonight, if you’re an Android user, now you can show the world too!


The Year In Online Video Deals And What To Expect In 2011

Editor’s note: Guest author Ashkan Karbasfrooshan is the founder and CEO of video site WatchMojo. In this post he examines looks back at the online video deals of 2010 and what deals could happen in 2011. You can find his previous guest posts about online video here.

With the recent rumor that Google’s YouTube unit was looking at acquiring video content company Next New Networks, it’s clear that anything can happen in the rapidly growing online video space.  While some are shocked to see that Google may cross over and own content, the rumor does sound plausible:

  • Next New Networks generates the vast majority of its views on YouTube and if the companies were under one umbrella, it would remove some of the monetization obstacles and challenges Next New Networks probably faces when trying to sell their YouTube inventory.
  • YouTube, meanwhile, has massive online video street credibility but totally lacks the human sensibility required in media and content in particular to take a rising star on the site and take them to the next level.  That is Next New Networks’ business.

The combination would allow YouTube to fold in Next New Networks and use it as a talent management platform, basically, and give the video aggregation site the ability to create videos if need be.

Loaded with nearly $25M in venture financing, it’s not quite the initial public offering that some of their investors were hoping for, but let’s face it, an exit to Google is nothing to be ashamed of.

Close, but no cigar: IPO Talk Will Increase

In fact, while you can blame Sarbanes Oxley or a lack of credible initial public offering (IPO) candidates, it is likely that 2011 will come and go with very few, if any, major liquidity events in the public markets for online video startups.  As such, the most likely path to liquidity for venture capitalists (VCs) remains mergers and acquisitions (M&A).  With VCs having invested in so many online video startups and industry revenues still not matching the lofty expectations that whet VCs appetites in the first place, a lot of boards will cash out in 2011 when buyers come knocking.

Only Certainty: Dealmaking Will Continue

After many years of expected consolidation, 2010 saw a wave of acquisitions:

Apart from Video Egg’s merger with Six Apart which was largely based on the shared VCs doing some financial engineering, with these deals, we saw examples of both vertical and horizontal integration.

The terms horizontal integration and vertical integration are used in microeconomics and strategic management, whereby:

  • horizontal integration describes a strategy used by a business that seeks to sell a type of product in numerous markets. Horizontal integration occurs between two firms which are in the same industry and in the same stage of production, ex: a car manufacturer merging with another car manufacturer.

Conversely:

  • vertical integration combines companies in a supply chain by a common owner. Usually each member of the supply chain produces a different product or (market-specific) service, and the products combine to satisfy a common need.

Vertical Integration

AOL’s moves were examples of vertical integration:

  • StudioNow gives it a platform to hire producers to create videos for its AOL properties and myriad brands.
  • 5Min gives it the opportunity to distribute its own videos and those it has licensed to more places around the Web.

These deals have given AOL an end-to-end capability in video.

Horizontal Integration

Meanwhile, we saw display banner ad networks venture into online video:

  • Specific Media acquiring Broadband Enterprises and Undertone acquiring Jambo enabled giant ad networks in the display banner arena to enter the video market rapidly.
  • Tremor acquiring Scanscout is plain consolidation among two competitors who probably got tired of tussling in the marketplace and eating into each other’s margins.  The deal gives them a bigger footprint and a march towards an initial public offering.

In this context, horizontal integration occurred between potential or actual competitors.

2011 Storylines

There is nothing to suggest that 2011 will be less busy on the online video deal front.  Here are some of the trends I think will drive M&A activity in 2011.

Ad Networks

Ad networks are rife for consolidation and can be broken up into:

  • The source of technology, Ad Servers: the software required to properly serve ads and offer the kind of targeting and reporting that advertisers and publishers expect these days.
  • The source of media, Ad Networks: the matching and intermediating between advertisers and publishers

A few firms have footholds in both: Auditude (ad server) also runs Cross Point Media (the ad network), Tremor runs the Acudeo ad server; while some operate under the same moniker (Adap.tv).  Some focus just on one space: LiveRail doesn’t have buy or sell media, it only offers an ad server.

With Jambo in the hands of Undertone and Broadband Enterprises part of Specific Media, expect display banner ad networks (such as Specific Media, Undertone or Tribal Fusion) to acquire video networks or see consolidation within video ad networks and servers.  There are no shortage of remaining players: Adap.tv, Auditude/Cross Point Media, Brightroll, Freewheel, LiveRail, Overlay.tv, Panache, Spotxchange, Tidal TV, Video Egg, Yume . . .  to name a few, with Tremor becoming a leading IPO candidate.

Big Media: A state of inertia

We have yet to see traditional media companies with their large purse strings step into the ring.  It’s only a matter of time though, as Magna’s latest figures show that online advertising will overtake newspapers by 2013, though TV advertising will still command the lion’s share of all ad dollars through 2016, with an estimated 40 percent share at that point.  Although, by then online video will account for $11.4 billion in global ad spend.  Where online video trumps television advertising is in growth rates: online video will grow at an average rate of 19.6% through 2016 (with estimated 50% growth in 2011 alone), versus a 7.5% growth rate for TV advertising.

With large media companies hoarding more cash than ever, it’s fair to assume that those who attempted to “build” from within and failed will soon shift gears and look to “buy”.

But the reality is that big media, by and large, still doesn’t know what it wants to do in the arena.  With Rupert Murdoch divesting from the Web in general and shifting focus from paywalls to iPad publications, it’s unlikely that News Corp. will ante up much for online video.  How about CBS?  With changes at the very top of’ management, I also don’t see them making too many shifts back into online video. Disney is more focused on gaming than online video.  NBC Universal, now in the hands of Comcast, will probably be stuck in integration mode for most of the year.  Time Warner seems intent on continuing its TV Everywhere initiative to maintain its margins and offline revenues.

Newspaper companies stand the most to benefit from online video, but they will spend the first half of the year wading through the opportunities to understand what strategy and targets will most help their business: technology to serve ads or video content to sell ads against.

The Portals and Major Online Companies

AOL certainly put itself in an enviable position with a series of moves, though integrating the various moving parts as its dial-up business continues to shrink will remain a challenge.

It’s now Yahoo!’s turn at bat.  With Ross Levinsohn coming on board and being a content guy with a penchant for deal-making, Yahoo! will mimic AOL and get more serious about video, but what they actually do is anybody’s guess.  They just unveiled their local strategy.  Is video next?  Don’t hold your breath.

Microsoft shuttered its Soapbox property and it remains to be determined what it will do in online video.  With Redmond admitting it offered Facebook a $15 billion offer and Steve Ballmer courting Twitter’s CEO Dick Costolo, I suspect Microsoft has priorities other than video.

Meanwhile, with $25 billion in cash and equivalents, Apple can move in multiple directions, namely:

  • mimicking its acquisition of mobile ad network Quattro Wireless with an acquisition of a video ad network that could enable its foray into advertising; iTunes is a cash cow, yes, but it could hedge itself by monetizing its booming Apps business via advertising and the iPad is the perfect video consumption device
  • it bought Lala to enter the music streaming business.  By the same logic, it could buy a CDN company to stay one step ahead of the surging bandwidth needs of mobile video delivery and find a way to rely less on carriers (BitGravity, Edgecast, Limelight Networks or Panther Express are some targets)
  • the acquisition of a major ad agency (or a parent holding company); this is one of the more unlikely of scenarios, but judging by some of the challenges Apple has had with its iAd initiative, it’s not crazy altogether
  • a livestreaming platform such as Justin.tv, Kyte, Livestream/Mogulus, Qik, uStream
  • a video search engine or discovery tool, to attack Microsoft and Google in the next area of search (it would be crazy to attack Google head on in traditional search) and it can find a plethora of companies looking to exit: Ramp (formerly Podzinger/Everyzing), Blinkx, Dabble, Pixsy, Cast TV, Clipblast, Mefeedia.

Amazon has its hands in storage (S3) and content delivery (Cloudfront).  It’s possible it will buy a video player technology to offer end-to-end solutions.  There won’t be any shortage of likely targets: Ooyala and Brightcove might be too expensive but the list of eager sellers includes bliptv, Kaltura, Feedroom and VMIX.

Ooyala and Brightcove will themselves look at tuck-in deals as they ramp up their own growth.

Facebook is a major player in online video, peaking at No. 2 in comScore’s August video rankings when it surpassed Yahoo! (though Yahoo! regained the No. 2 spot the next month in September).  Facebook has a tendency to acquire companies for its people, but like Apple, it could also acquire:

  • an authentification system to differentiate the massive amounts of video it is hosting
  • a CDN company to ensure stability and lower hosting costs as it continues to grow
  • a livestreaming platform such as Justin.tv, Kyte, Livestream/Mogulus, Qik, uStream
  • an ad network to make money from video.

InterActive Corp. (IAC) is sitting on a lot of cash and investing in content creation efforts via Electus and Notional.  It would be logical for them to now invest in some kind of distribution play to ensure that their programming is actually seen: potential targets include DailyMotion, Metacafe or Nabbr.  It does own Vimeo, but that doesn’t offer the kind of reach marketers need.  We saw Sony do this via their Grouper acquisition a few years ago, renaming the website Crackle and using it to showcase their programming.  While the jury’s out on the success of that deal, we might see IAC pull a similar move.

Will any of these deals actually happen?  Who knows.  Predicting this kind of thing is a recipe for failure, but there is an adage that says “buy on the rumor and sell on the news.”  With more hype and expectations surrounding online video, the buying will continue.