OMG/JK: Shiny Hats And Crystal Balls

It’s time for a special New Years-themed edition of OMG/JK, and we’ve really gone all out with our costumes. From shiny hats to incredibly cheap kazoos, we’re ready to ring in 2011 with a bang. Oh, and we’ve got some technology to talk about.

Because there hasn’t been much major news in the tech world this week, we decided to spend most of the show discussing some of the big trends that are inevitably going to make headlines throughout 2011. From Apple’s likely push to the cloud to the consumer launch of ChromeOS and Android’s arrival on tablets we’ve got a lot to look forward to — and we’re not afraid to make some predictions.

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A Look At Some Of The Biggest Tech Stories Of 2010

It’s New Year’s Eve, and there’s nothing that compliments a glass of celebratory champagne better than reflecting on the past year in technology news (really, it’s a blast). One of the best roundups just went up over on Techmeme, which has posted its annual “quasi-objective” list of the top 50 stories based how many links and citations each post received.

The top five stories shouldn’t come as a surprise, but they’re a good reminder of what’s gone on this year (apparently people like to write about Google and Apple):

  • 1. Gizmodo’s huge iPhone 4 scoop
  • 2. Steve Jobs bashing Flash
  • 3. Google’s decision to stop censoring Google.cn after detecting hacking attempts
  • 4. Google’s decision to mostly abandon its Nexus One experiment, which could have proven very disruptive to carrier/device lock-in.
  • 5. And the Consumer Reports announcement that it could not recommend the iPhone 4, which elevated ‘antennagate‘ to a new level (and prompted Apple to hold an event to discuss the device’s reported signal issues).
  • Google has also posted a roundup of its own, recapping the 454 posts it published on the Official Google Blog this year. Google says that 24,768,052 unique vistors visited the blog — an increase of 70% over last year, though most of this stemmed from Google’s April Fools joke, where it claimed it was renaming the company to Topeka. I like our April Fools jokes better.
    Ignoring the April Fools Joke, which had over ten times more views than any of the company’s actual news (a mildly depressing data point), Google’s top story was the ‘new approach to China’ referenced above. The second biggest story was Google’s post announcing ChromeOS — which was actually published in 2009 but has continued to draw attention, and finally had its big launch earlier this month. Rounding out the top five were Google’s announcement that it would install a fiber network in a still-undisclosed city, its decision to kill off Google Wave, and the launch of Google Places.

    Image by Brian Solis


    Drunk TechCrunch Is Drunk. (Happy New Year!)

    It’s New Year’s Eve and you know what that means — an adult beverage or two might be had by many people around the world this evening. That includes many TechCrunch staffers. And while drunk blogging is generally frowned upon, it would be interesting to see what the site would look like if everyone wrote while intoxicated. (Yes, yes, insert the NOT THAT DIFFERENT joke here.) Luckily, Zaraguza Digital has created a web app to allow us to see such a site without any of the risk (or the hangover).

    Simply visit this link and start moving the slider along the bottom to set the blood alcohol level. Obviously, at 0.0, things look normal. At 0.5, things look fine for the most part with a few more typos. At about 1.5 to 2.0 things start getting fun. And clearly, our developers would be getting in on some hardcore drunk coding action as well.

    In all seriousness though, thanks for reading TechCrunch this year and stay safe tonight. Happy New Year!

    TC at 0.0

    TC at 0.5

    TC at 1.0

    TC at 1.5

    TC at 2.0

    TC at 2.5

    TC at 3.0

    TC at 7.0


    How To Avoid Getting Fired From Your Own Company

    Editor’s note: Guest author Chris Yeh is an independent angel investor and VP of Marketing for PBworks, one of his investments. He has been involved with Internet startups since 1995. His Twitter handle is @chrisyeh.

    If you start a company, it will probably happen to you someday. Maybe it will be your VC or a board member. Maybe it will be your co-founder.

    Sooner or later, they’ll try to fire you.

    I’m an investor in or advisor to dozens of startups, and at least once a quarter, I get the call: “Chris, they’re trying to fire me.” (The other urgent call I get is when they’re negotiating a financing round, merger, or sale. I much prefer those calls!)

    Most entrepreneurs are surprised the first time their investors or co-founders try to fire them. They can’t imagine being banished from the company that they created. Maybe they were the only employee of the company for years. Maybe they recruited and courted the very person who comes to carry out the execution.

    The sad fact is, founder firings are the rule, not the exception.

    Many of Silicon Valley’s most storied companies involve palace coups and forgotten founders. How many people remember Apple’s third founder? At least Eduardo Saverin of Facebook has a movie to commemorate his role in the company’s start. And don’t forget how Apple fired Steve Jobs himself–who is only the most successful Silicon Valley CEO of all time.

    If Steve Jobs can be forced out, anyone can, including you.

    But that doesn’t mean you need to take it laying down. If it happens to you—and it will—here’s are the eight steps you can take to maximize your chances of survival:

    1) Don’t get caught by surprise. Coup attempts can happen anytime: when the business is going badly (“we need new blood”) or when the business is going well (“we don’t need him anymore”). Often, the conspirators will count on shock and surprise to panic you into a bad decision. If you’ve anticipated the betrayal in advance, you’ll be better prepared.

    2) Start planning your defenses early. By the time the attack comes, it will be too late—if the plotters are any good. Lay your foundations up front in terms of board composition and corporate governance. Make sure you know just what someone would have to do to remove you, and minimize your vulnerabilities.

    3) Get everything in writing. Promises aren’t worth a bucket of warm spit. I’ve told many an entrepreneur that once millions of dollars are involved, they’ll see the ugly side of human nature. People are capable of rationalizing almost any action if it enriches them. I’ve seen family members sell each other out and lifelong friends come to blows over this. I personally have two close friends who lost millions over broken promises because they trusted their partner’s word rather than insisting on a contract.

    4) Constantly work the key players. If you don’t develop a personal relationship with every board member and key shareholder, you deserve what you get. Monitor their words and actions closely. Many people are bad liars and will tip you off with their mannerisms and reactions. Developing those relationships will also make it more likely that they’ll believe you, rather than the plotters.

    5) Realize that you are dispensable. One mistake many entrepreneurs make is to assume that they’re essential to the company because of all they’ve done in the past. To investors, what you’ve done is meaningless. All that matters is what you can do for the company (and the value of their shares) in the future. The instant you stop adding value, your days are numbered.

    A friend of mine keeps chickens to provide him with fresh eggs. Recently, I asked how they were doing. “I killed them all,” he said. “They stopped being productive egg layers. I ordered three dozen new chicks by mail. They arrive next week.”

    Make sure you continue to be perceived as productive.

    6) The best defense is a good offense. If you think someone is plotting against you, don’t just sit back and wait for him to make a move—start collecting ammunition and allies for the inevitable battle. If you believe action is imminent, be prepared to unleash a first strike, and have plans in place for both victory and defeat.

    7) Don’t sign anything during the coup attempt. If your enemies do strike first, don’t panic and whatever you do, don’t sign anything. Most coups depend on the power of the bluff. The plotters may think that you, as a first time entrepreneur, may make a mistake if pressed.

    One of my friends, a Harvard Business School classmate, was pressured into resigning from the company he founded by his more experienced investor. Had he simply said, “I need a day to think it over,” he could have checked the facts and rallied allies. As it was, all I could do was express my sympathy.

    8) Counterattack. The best way to counterattack is to get a majority of board members and investors on your side. The next best way is to be indispensable to the company. The third best way after that is to get the lead investor on your side.

    If you can’t do any of the above, there is always the nuclear option: a lawsuit. Before you go nuclear, though, understand a few lawsuit basics:

    • You probably won’t win, and even if you do, you probably won’t get anything worthwhile.
    • You don’t need to win a lawsuit. The whole point is that everyone loses (except the lawyers). That gives you leverage, especially if the other side has more to lose. For example, no VC will ever fund a company that is fighting a lawsuit, and no corporate buyer will buy from a vendor that is so embroiled.
    • A lawsuit can’t restore you to power. Best case, you’ll be able to walk away with a decent settlement. That’s why it’s better to head off a coup before it has a chance to succeed.

    Even if you follow all of my steps, you might still get fired. The only way to be totally fireproof is to own a controlling stake in your company and have no need for outside capital, which is why I encourage founders to bootstrap as much as they can.

    You should also bear in mind that sometimes, the coup plotters are right. It might be hard to accept, but sometimes your company (and your wallet) will end up doing better if you bow out. The legendary Don Valentine of Sequoia Capital had to fire Sandy Lerner and Len Bosack from the company they created, Cisco Systems. At the time, the company was worth less than $1 billion. Today, it’s worth $112 billion.

    Would anyone have been able to fire Sandy and Len if they hadn’t raised money? No. Would they have made as much money if they hadn’t accepted Sequoia’s funding? Probably not. Bootstrapping is not a universal answer.

    (Note: I don’t have any personal knowledge of what went down at Cisco; for all I know, the firing was completely unjustified. But it’s hard to argue with the results.)

    If you do decide to take money from professional investors, at least you now know how to maximize your chances of sticking around. And if you do get fired, remember that revenge is a dish best served cold. Be professional, avoid burning bridges, and bide your time. Maybe you’ll be like Steve Jobs and make a triumphant return.

    Information provided by CrunchBase


    The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be

    My advice for the new year: go East and South, young man and woman … and investor. America, Europe, and Japan are stagnant and ponderous. More and more, in the coming years, the real moving and shaking will happen elsewhere.

    “2011 will be the year Android explodes!” cried a recent headline, citing a new Broadcom chipset that will reportedly make sub-$100 unsubsidized smartphones ubiquitous. Maybe so, but I second MG’s skepticism: North American carriers will fight this tooth and nail, and even when they lose, we’ll still have to wait for the three-year contracts that are status quo here to finally die. If that chipset is real, though, the headline’s not wrong; Android will explode … in the developing world, where virtually all phone service is pre-paid. (As, ahem, I predicted 20 months ago.)

    There’s a larger trend here. Mobile phones and 3G service became ubiquitous in Africa so rapidly in part because they never had to compete with landlines. Kenyans flocked to mobile-phone money transfer services, because they had no consumer banks: now M-Pesa, the largest, handles money equal to a mindboggling 10% of Kenya’s GDP every year. (The US equivalent would be $1.4 trillion/year. By contrast, PayPal handles less than $100 billion/year worldwide, of which mobile-phone payments are but a small fraction.) Now much of Kenya is quickly adopting distributed, flexible, resilient solar power, largely because their monolithic, sclerotic, vulnerable grid doesn’t reach much of the country.

    As the poor world grows richer, we can expect more of the same: unencumbered by entrenched customs, regulations, special interests and legacy infrastructure, they’ll make the most of new technologies far faster than us laggards in the West. Why does cable TV still exist, in this BitTorrent era? Because the cable companies are like tapeworms in our economies’ guts, sucking life from their hosts as they die with agonizing slowness. Why are universal electronic health records so hard to implement? Because the multi-trillion-dollar health industry is set firmly in its antediluvian ways and has no incentive to change. But these parasites and foot-draggers are far less established in the developing world, and that’s why the future will increasingly happen there, not here.

    This doesn’t mean they’ll be better off – we’ll be vastly wealthier for some decades yet – but they’re using their blank-slate advantage to evolve far faster. if you want to see the world’s real hothouse of change, or build a business that can change the lives of (or make money from) many tens of millions in the space of a few years, get ahead of the curve and aim at the 70% of humanity who live in Asia, where they already get new smartphones first, or Africa, which despite its Dark Continent reputation is rapidly growing wealthier.

    “May you live in interesting times,” says the alleged ancient Chinese curse. If only. Here in the First World we’re increasingly trapped in yesterday’s tedium. In the 21st century, it’s the rest of the world who will live on the bleeding edge of the future.


    OpenFeint Sees 187% Spike In Downloads Of iOS Games Over Christmas Holiday

    The holiday season traditionally sees a spike in mobile app downloads as users receive new devices and have more free time to interact with their phones. Today mobile social gaming platform OpenFeint is reporting that it added over 450,000 new users on Christmas day, which is a 184% spike over its daily average and the largest single day in its history in terms of new users. And the network added nearly 1.4 million new users in the four days around the holiday, including Christmas.

    OpenFeint users downloaded more than 5 million OpenFeint enabled games during the 4-day stretch, with Android downloads growing by 73% and iOS downloads up by 187%. And it appears that activity is up from the same period last year; the network added 88% more users than a year ago.

    So what contributed to this growth? OpenFeint’s cross-platform approach to its social gaming platform, first launching on the iPhone and iPad and more recently adding Android game developers to its rapidly growing community, definitely is helping set the gaming platform apart.

    The company recently took a $8 million investment from Intel Capital and Chinese gaming company The9, as OpenFeint looks to expand beyond the iOS and Android platforms.

    Information provided by CrunchBase


    The Year In Virtual Goods By The Numbers

    Editor’s note: Guest author Ted Sorom is the CEO of Rixty, a virtual currency platform.

    The global virtual goods industry put up some very impressive numbers this year. From special Easter eggs to virtual ad campaigns, virtual goods sales have grabbed their share of headlines over the past twelve months. Now with social gaming on the rise and everyone from your teenage nephew to your grandma to your old rugby teammate buying a “little something” to sweeten their online game, here is a look a back at the year in virtual goods sales.

    $7,300,000,000: expected global revenue generated by the virtual goods industry in 2010. This is huge, considering the $60 billion generated in 2009 by the video game industry as a whole, and clearly shows that browser-based gaming is making great strides.

    $2,100,000,000: The projected size of the US virtual goods market in 2011.

    80,000,000: the all-time high number of Farmville players. The ubiquitous title for social gaming the world over, FarmVille surpassed its 2009 high mark of 50 million monthly active users, hitting this new peak in early 2010. You can now stop pretending you’re not addicted to your precious online farm. It’s ok… you’re among friends. Oh, and now CityVille is larger than FarmVille and approaching FarmVille’s all-time high with 75 million monthly active users.

    20: percentage of Electronic Art’s overall revenue generated by digital sales. These aren’t just avatar items and XP boosts; the figure also refers to full-game downloads and downloadable content (DLC) to enhance console games. EA’s CFO Eric Brown notes that their “digital sales usually start with the sale of a physical disc, especially on the current generation of consoles.” But the upcoming Star Wars MMO is guaranteed to boost DLC consumption; want a blue double-ended light saber? It can be yours, if the price is right.

    90,000,000: number of Pet Society virtual goods sold every single day. According to developer EA/Playfish, their most popular title has 20 million users, double that of World of Warcraft. It’s no wonder that EA was willing to pay $400 million to acquire the hot social developer in 2009.

    $635,000: New world record for the single largest purchase in an online game, in this case a virtual intergalactic resort in Planet Calypso. A few years ago the same seller, Jon ‘Neverdie’ Jacobs, sold $335,000 worth of virtual real estate in Entropia Universe. While the majority of microtransactions cost just a few dollars, there are rare occasions where individuals spend serious money on virtual goods. Clearly, the virtual “Club Neverdie superdome” was a sound investment for Jacobs; the new owner (Yan Panasjuk) anticipates that the property will continue to grow in value. He is now dedicating 40 to 60 hours a week to the game, and has been playing MMOs for over a decade. Both parties are serious about their virtual worlds. Mr. Jacobs, also a career gamer, has already made over half a million dollars in online real estate.

    4,000,000: total number of items in IMVU’s virtual goods catalog, making it the world’s largest. Based in Silicon Valley, the company runs a hybrid chat, gaming and avatar site. There are over 5,000 new items added every day, primarily created and uploaded by IMVU’s own user community.

    10% (and growing): percentage of overall item sales in OurWorld generated by the resale market. The multiplayer gaming destination aggregates hundreds of third-party games into a virtual world with over 16,000 virtual items. OurWorld’s CEO, Derrick Morton, states, “In the last half year, we’ve seen our resale market explode. We think that a healthy secondary market is key to running a good virtual economy. If the players can’t trade amongst themselves, the virtual goods really have no value.” Think of it as virtual Craigslist.

    220,000: number of “Summertime avatar baseball caps sold in Roblox, a blocky MMO playground. These hats were available for tickets, a free currency that all players get for logging in and which can be traded for Robux or vice versa. Rest, Relaxation and Roblox: gotta keep those virtual “rays” out of your eyes!

    15,000,000: number of virtual hot dogs eaten by non-playable characters in LOLapps’ Ravenwood Fair (nom nom). The Facebook game saw huge growth last year to over 100 million monthly active users (MAU), and recently released an interesting info-graphic detailing their rise. For instance, 2 billion quizzes have been taken and 8 billion gifts have been sent!

    Two: the factors that drive players to buy upper-tier items in online games, as opposed to just spending $0.99 here and there. The first is Value: Net Dragon’s value packs deliver the same bulk discount that players might find in a real-world big box store. The other big factor is Rarity; limited supply drives up demand. This often comes in the form of a “box” (such as the VIP Box in GameCampus’ Shot Online golf) which contains a wide range of items plus a chance to uncover the game’s rarest and most valuable equipment.

    And with that, we wish everyone a Happy New Year. By this time next year, these numbers will look small.


    What 20 Minutes On Facebook Looks Like: 1M Shared Links, 2.7M Photos Uploaded, 10.2M Comments

    Democracy UK, a UK-focused political campaigning initiative by Facebook, has just released a number of mind-blowing stats on the massive usage of the network by its 500-plus million members in 2010. Over the course of the year, Facebook reports that 43,869,800 members changed their status to single, 3,025,791 changed their status to “it’s complicated”, 28,460,516 changed their status to in a relationship, 5,974,574 changed their status to engaged and 36,774,801 changes their status to married.

    While these numbers are impressive, Facebook’s stats on “what 20 minutes on Facebook looks like,” are even more staggering. According to Facebook, 1 million links are shared every 20 minutes on the network. Here are a few other stats listed:

    Tagged photos: 1.3 million

    Event invites sent out: 1.5 million

    Wall Posts: 1.6 million

    Status updates: 1.8 million

    Friend requests accepted: 1.97 million

    Photos uploaded: 2.7 million

    Comments: 10.2 million

    Messages: 4.6 million

    The most “liked” celebrities in 2010 were Lady Gaga (24,712,169 likes), Eminem (23,729,700 likes), Megan Fox (19,575,080 likes), Vin Diesel (19,425,325 likes), Rihanna (18,903,844 likes), Barack Obama (17,229,885 likes).

    Photo Credit/Flickr/fbouly

    Information provided by CrunchBase


    2010 In Review: The Fortunate Winners And The Pathetic Losers

    Oh, 2010. It was glorious, but thank the almighty prancing unicorn in the sky that it’s over. It was the year of the iPad, really. Steve Jobs took to the stage of Moscone Center, sat down, and proceeded to show the world how he wanted us to interact with the Internet — several million consumers followed suite immediately. But there was so much more, too! Of course not everyone had such a good year as Apple. Or Roku. Or Amazon. Some companies and products didn’t fare so well and they’re probably looking to the riches that will [hopefully] be made in 2011.

    Look at Android tablets, netbooks, cable companies and even Windows Home server, Google TV, and the TV show Lost. All losers in the game of Life, 2010 Edition. But no worries. 2011 is tomorrow and the Internet is a kind soul who’s quick to forget past blunders as long as future ventures result positively. It’s just too bad that what happened in 2010 will likely happen in 2011. It’s going to be more of the same. Sorry if I’m the one to tell you this; that’s the way it works ’round here.

    Read More


    Wikipedia Still $1M Short Of Fundraising Goal For 2010 (And Why I Donated)

    It’s the last day of the year, according to the Gregorian calendar at least, which prompted me to do some research on how well Wikipedia’s fundraising efforts for 2010 were going. As you may have heard, the Wikimedia Foundation is trying to scrape together $16 million from user and supporter donations to fund its strategic plans for 2011 (PDF).

    The contribution campaign, starring Wikipedia founder Jimmy ‘Jimbo’ Wales in a prominent role, was kicked off around November 13, 2010, and has so far brought in $15 million according to the banner that appears on top of Wikipedia articles these days.

    Or has it?

    Wikimedia Foundation, the non-profit organization that operates Wikipedia (and other free knowledge projects), is keeping a nice public Fundraiser Statistics page, which shows the cumulative total raised to date is actually just north of $13 million. We’re not sure where the discrepancy lies, but according to the Wikipedia Twitter account there was $2 million left to raise on December 29, so we suspect the stats tool provides an inaccurate estimate.


    (click image for larger version)

    Either way, Wikimedia’s fundraising goal hasn’t been reached yet, although we should note that this is by far the most money the organization has ever raised from contributors – they netted just over $6 million in 2009 (according to Wikipedia, ha).

    We should also note that the goal wasn’t necessarily to bring in $16 million by the end of the year, but to raise that amount in two months, which means there’s still two weeks left.

    So why did I donate?

    Quite simply because I love Wikipedia, and frequent the site regularly, both on my desktop computer and from my mobile phone. I realize that I’m hardly the only one visiting Wikipedia and appreciating it for being both exhaustive and free, but what prompted me to donate to keep it gratis is also because I actually enjoy Wikipedia. It’s not only a source of knowledge for me, but also a form of entertainment of some sorts.

    I’ve spent countless hours on the site this year clicking from one article to the next, and I genuinely love getting lost in there.

    My latest revelation: actor Josh James Brolin (No Country For Old Men, American Gangster, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps) was actually the guy who played the older brother character in the 80′s-classic flick The Goonies (whoa – I had no idea).

    Is Wikipedia perfect? By all means, no, but that’s not the point. I couldn’t imagine a world without it, and having an answer to the majority of my questions a mere click away.

    All that – and, I confess, Wales’ begging eyes – is what made me donate to Wikimedia, and why you should at the very least consider doing it too.


    Eleven 3D Printing Predictions For the Year 2011

    This is a guest post by Joris Peels, the Community Manager of i.materialise, a 3D printing service for designers, inventors and consumers. They are part of Materialise, a company with over 20 years experience in 3D printing and the market leader in 3D printing services and software.

    Making predictions is a sure fire path towards getting ridiculed. But, I’ll be brave and go right ahead and make 11 predictions for 3D printing in 2011.

    Makerbot will sell more than 10,000 3D printers in 2011.
    To put that in perspective, there are approximately 30,000 3D printers in the world today. Makerbot would have to scale to meet this kind of production but given their strong brand and loyal following it should, together with some prime time TV coverage, be possible.

    Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.

    Bre Pettis is the congenial Maker in Chief of Makerbot. Possibly he will be holding a Makerbot. And for all you Kevin Rose watchers out there, this will not be the beginning of the end.

    A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.
    An injection molded product does not count, even if it was prototyped using 3D printing. The revenue must come from the sales of the 3D printed products themselves. A label that designs many products will also not count since this has happened before. Several designers have revenues of hundreds of thousands of dollars selling 3D printed items ranging from chairs to jewelry currently. As many designers get more knowledgeable with the 3D printing process and media coverage increases a million dollar hit is only one good design away.

    Both Stratasys and Objet will release $5000 desktop 3D printers at Euromold 2011.

    $5,000 is the new $20,000. Most entry level desktop 3D printers by companies such as Stratasys & Objet cost around $20,000 now. The Makerbot and Bits From Bytes 3D printers are available for around $1000 in kits and $3000 assembled. 3D printing services are also expanding and disrupting the market for 3D printers. I’m guessing people will read The Innovators Dilemma and reluctantly rush towards offering 3D printers around the $5000 mark. The $5,000 price point is well established by the now defunct Desktop Factory and so would be an illogical but obvious price point for 3D printer manufacturers to work towards. Both Stratasys and Objet’s technology could be stripped down to make a $5000 3D printer.

    Zcorp & EOS will be the only major 3D printer manufacturers not to offer a desktop 3D printer in 2011.
    In two blog posts Zcorp’s Vice President of R&D expresses strong skepticism about the need for and usefulness of consumer 3D printing. This to me points to Zcorp focusing more on improving its existing technologies and in expanding its technology base by using the Envisontec Ultra technology and improving the materials and process of the Ultra machine. A likely path for Zcorp is making recyclable and biodegradable materials and in then later positioning themselves as the “green 3D printing” player.

    EOS on the other hand has made no move whatsoever towards the desktop market. It seems content to make further advances in direct digital manufacturing and its product portfolio and advances indicate this. It would be difficult to make an affordable Selective Laser Sintering system at the moment and even though it could (with some advances and a huge reduction in the cost of lasers) be possible EOS would seem to have huge opportunities in capturing market share in the direct digital production market for medical and industrial manufacturing right now.

    3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.

    3D Systems has been playing the M&A game quite seriously over the past year acquiring Bits From Bytes and a string of 3D printing services worldwide. Their Marketing Manager is Cathy Lewis who used to be the CEO of consumer facing Desktop Factory. The combination of these assets shows a strong urge to become big in the consumer 3D printing market, and a 3D printing service aimed at consumers would make sense in that light.

    At least five 3D printing startups aimed at consumers will launch during 2011.
    With all the media & VC attention given to 3D printing many MBA-types will be pining over how they will make their fortune in the 3D printing business. Their thoughts are always towards barriers to entry, scalable etc. Also, web services are something they think they understand so they will come up with “3D printing on Facebook”, “its like i.materialise but for..”, 3D printing for the iPhone, etc.

    Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.
    Adobe understands the network effect and with its Reader software makes (somehow) millions by letting people publish and read documents. With more and more information being held in 3D formats “going 3D” would seem to be a logical step for Adobe. Reading, opening and editing 3D formats is a mess and ripe for consolidation. Autodesk’s stock performance recently has improved but still not reached the highs of the mid-2000’s. Executives have left and the company has experienced a lot of weakness due to its exposure to the AEC (architecture, engineering & construction) market. The company’s are giants in their respective markets and the tie up also somehow feels right.

    Microsoft buys Dassault Systemes in 2011.
    Dassault Systemes also seems to understand the network effect and its 3DVia software suite is a clear play to become the “Reader of 3D. “ The company is very strong in B2B engineering and 3D modeling software with Solidworks and Catia. It is also a giant in PLM. And product lifecycle management software would seem to be the way in which companies can manage the creation of intellectual property. It’s an illogical but prestigious asset to its defense contractor shareholders and its stock price has surged over the past years due to canny take overs and growth. This would not come cheap, but Microsoft with all its “SAP money” could make the acquisition and become a giant in 3D creation and engineering. Dassault would be a much more logical fit for Microsoft than the Google inspired acquisitions it has made over these past years. French protectionism and complex shareholdings would complicate matters however.

    3D modeling software vendors will start to offer “light 3D printing” versions of their products

    Both Solidworks and Rhino have experienced immense market growth due to inexpensive Student versions of their software driving demand for later adoption by companies and freelancers. Blender has become a huge by being a vibrant community and free. SketchUp has obtained many paid users because of its free to use versions. But, full versions of many 3D modeling packages cost anywhere from several hundred to several thousand dollars. There is a huge gap between the free alternatives and the fully paid versions while the “seeding strategy” seems to work well for the industry. An expected influx into 3D modeling by enthusiasts and broader adoption of 3D modeling software should drive growth. However these people are likely to turn to free or inexpensive versions of easy to learn packages first. And despite the industry’s best efforts, no package is easy at the moment. A possible solution would be to offer stripped down inexpensive 3D printing specific light versions of popular 3D modeling applications. These would be easier to master and cheaper to buy.

    3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011

    Design label .MGX has been winning a host of awards for its 3D printed work lately. Furthermore its works have been added to the permanent collection of the MOMA and the Smithsonian National Design Museum. Objet won a Red Dot for its Connex 3D printer in 2008 and designer Janne Kyttanen won a Red Dot back in 2005 for his LILY.MGX lamp. With many new designers active in the field producing attractive and groundbreaking work two Red Dots might be achievable.

    Information provided by CrunchBase


    WakeMate Warns Users Of Major Safety Issue With Product After One Bursts Into Flames

    It was only days ago that we wrote that after nearly a year of delays, the first WakeMate units were finally shipping to customers. And now there’s some more bad news — really bad. Some of the initial units are apparently bursting into flames because of any issue with the USB charger included.

    Repeat: Do not use the USB charger included with the shipping WakeMate units.

    The company has just sent out the following notice to customers:

    Hello WakeMate Customer,

    We have just been alerted to a safety issue with our product. The black USB charger bricks that have been included with the product are defective. Do not use them.

    The USB chargers were sourced through a Chinese vendor. We paid to have the proper certification and safety tests performed here in the U.S. for the chargers. However, tonight we were informed by a customer of a safety incident with the black USB chargers. Therefore, effective immediately we are recalling ALL USB charger bricks and informing our customers that it is not safe to use these USB chargers to charge your WakeMate.

    We will continue to look into the situation but needed to email you immediately to ensure that you stop using and unplug the included Black USB Power Bricks.

    We are extremely sorry that we sent a product containing defective components. However, we also want to stress that this issue is with the chargers only, and not with the WakeMate itself. It is still safe to use the included USB cable to charge the WakeMate, and it is safe to wear the WakeMate while sleeping.

    I sincerely apologize for this mishap on our part. We are doing everything we can to prevent any further incidents with the USB charger bricks.

    If you have any questions do not hesitate to contact me.

    Sincerely,
    Arun Gupta
    CEO, Perfect Third Inc.

    While the notice isn’t specific about what the exact problem is, there is at least one report out there of a unit catching on fire. Jason Toff, a Googler, sent out this tweet tonight:

    WARNING: my @WakeMate just burnt into flames, nearly catching my bed on fire. Do NOT use. Video of it afterward: http://twitvid.com/UBBWC

    As you can see in Toff’s linked video, this looks really bad. He followed up to say he was fine, but that he was lucky he was around or his home would be on fire right now.

    Obviously, this is yet more bad news for WakeMate, but they seem to have done the right thing in alerting customers as quickly as possible. It’s not yet clear if this is the only incident or if there have been others. Either way, WakeMate clearly feels this potentially won’t be an isolated problem.

    Again, just to be clear, they’re saying the product itself is still safe, it’s just the black USB power adapter that is apparently defective. And if that’s the case, they shouldn’t have to do a full product recall — hopefully they’ll just have to send new USB adapters to all customers. The company says they’re still looking into the situation.

    Update: There’s a bit more info in the Hacker News thread on the issue, including the company answering questions (they are Y Combinator-backed). Of note, the company says:

    yes the batteries are safe. we believe that the chargers are spitting out a noisy electrical signal, which is causing the battery charger IC on the WakeMate to overheat, thus causing the problem. We have only seen any incidence when the unit is plugged into the black USB charger bricks we shipped with. To date we have logged over 20000 hours of sleep on our system, so we’re certain that sleeping with the Wakemate is safe, and that the batteries on the WakeMates are safe as well. This is in addition to the testing and certification we had done on the unit as well before we began shipping units.

    and:

    We sent this email tonight within an hour of hearing about the first issue. One of our goals as a company is to increase people’s quality of life — starting with sleep. It was immediately apparent to us we had to tell our customers, especially if their safety was at all at risk.

    Information provided by CrunchBase


    Addoway Is Like eBay With A Social Streak

    If you’ve ever gone shopping on eBay, you know how important seller ratings can be — take a stab with someone who has less than a 90-something approval rating, and you’re testing your luck. And even when you’ve found someone with a satisfactory rating, the descriptions left by other buyers tend to be mostly useless (A++++, anyone?), which makes the whole thing feel a little risky regardless. Oh, and sellers can always get scammed by buyers, which makes it even more fun.

    Addoway is an e-commerce site that looks to help reduce these feelings of anxiety by using Facebook Connect to help you find sellers that your friends have had good experiences dealing with in the past. The site launched eight months ago, and is currently drawing 90,000 uniques a month.

    The premise is simple: when you run a search on Addoway for whatever it is you’re looking to buy (say, an Xbox), the site will let you sort listings by your social connections. If you know someone who has interacted with a certain seller before, then they’ll show up at the top — and you can talk to your friends about their experience with that seller if you’re still hesitant.

    Of course, in order for these social connections to be of any use you need to actually know people who are using the site to either buy or sell things. And right now it’s pretty unlikely — even if you have a few hundred friends, the odds that one of them is using Addoway to sell the item you’re looking for is very low.

    CEO Fredrick Nijm agrees that it’s unlikely that the social connections will be much help at this point, but he believes that if the site grows in popularity, it will become much more useful. For the nearer-term, Addoway has a back-up plan in place to help make shoppers more comfortable: very transparent seller listings.

    The site invites sellers to link up their blogs, Amazon accounts, eBay seller profiles, and YouTube videos, allowing visitors to quickly get a snapshot of who they are. Granted, reading someone’s blog or watching their videos doesn’t necessarily help you determine if they’re a reputable seller, but this kind of transparency can still potentially help instill a greater sense of trust. Maybe.

    So far the site has over 400,000 listings, most of which have been sucked in from eBay (Addoway lets sellers connect with their eBay, Etsy, and Bonanza accounts). Nijm declined to say how many active sellers the site has, but says that most of them (including those who have linked their eBay accounts) are still active.

    The site makes money by offering a premium account to sellers for $8.95 per month that gives them prominent placement in search results and Addoway’s social media presences. In the future the site will also add transaction fees, though existing users will have a window where they won’t have to pay them.

    This is a very difficult market to crack into, especially given how much traction Addoway will need for its social connections to become useful, and Nijm knows it. Still, he says that this is the only service that uses Facebook Connect to help buyers pick out reputable sellers (as opposed to using it for product recommendations, the way Amazon does), and he says that Addoway has seen significant growth over the last several months, going from 60,000 uniques a couple of months ago to 90,000 today.

    Information provided by CrunchBase


    BarMax, The $1,000 App (That’s Actually Worth It), Hits The iPad

    It was just about a year ago that we first wrote about BarMax, an iPhone application meant to help law student pass the Bar exam. But if you’ve heard of the app, it’s more likely because of its price: $999.99. And now you’ll be able to part with the $1,000 at the click of a button for the iPad too.

    BarMax, which, believe it or not, actually seems to be a good deal at $1,000, has just launched the iPad version into the App Store this evening. Specifically, the California (each state has different Bar exams) version is ready to roll.

    Last month, we did a preview of the iPad version and noted that the company had racked up over $200,000 in sales from the California and New York versions of their iPhone app. And the iPad version looks to be even more useful as it has been re-built from the ground-up to take advantage of the new form factor and larger screen.

    Here are the key features of the iPad version from the company:

    • Native iPad app that has been built from scratch to take advantage of the iPad screen size.
    • Larger screen eliminates the need for books that some users still had.
    • Students can buy a new iPad if they don’t have one and the course for just $1,500, which is still more than 50% off from other leading courses.  We expect a spike in iPad purchasing among law students.
    • Enhanced outline reader layout with quick page scroller.
    • Ability to highlight text, create notes, and bookmark pages.
    • Redesigned Multiple Choice section with explanations of correct and incorrect answer options.

    The reason the $1,000 price (the max you can charge in the App Store) is reasonable for this app is because of both the massive amount of data included — just about 1 GB — and because the course that students typically take for Bar exam prep, BarBri, usually costs something like $3,000 to $4,000 for the same type of information prep.

    More importantly, the app appears to actually work. The data from the last Bar exam results showed students who used BarMax fairing well above the average pass rate.

    To celebrate the iPad launch, BarMax is also giving away one copy of the $1,000 app to a lucky soon-to-be-lawyer TechCrunch reader. Simply email [email protected] with “TechCrunch” in the subject and your law school and graduation year in the email by January 5, 2011. They will select a winner at random from those who email.

    You can find BarMax for iPad here in the App Store.

    Information provided by CrunchBase