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UK economy ‘to slow over winter’

Five pound notesStubbornly high inflation will hurt many households the report says

The UK recovery is losing momentum and will slow over the winter but chances of a double-dip recession has been “exaggerated”, say forecasters.

Gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 1.4% this year and 2.2% in 2011, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club predicted.

But the economic forecasting group added the recovery would face a “soft patch” in the coming months.

The report comes ahead of the government Spending Review which many fear will stunt the economy.

“The economy is likely to slow over the winter following a surprisingly positive first half of the year, but I think this will be a soft-patch, not a double-dip,” said Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.

However he warned that low wage growth and rising unemployment along with high inflation, meant the average UK household was “in for a tough time”.

And Mr Spencer said the UK would have to wait until late 2011 before it began to see any significant economic improvement.

There has been much speculation over where the chancellor will make the cuts – with one report suggesting that on top of public sector job losses, there could be almost 500,000 private sector roles lost because of the knock-on effect.

Mr Spencer said that once the uncertainty was over, businesses would be more likely to relax and increase investment.

“Wednesday’s announcement should peel away another layer of uncertainty from the economic outlook and encourage businesses to loosen the purse strings, in much the same way that the formation of the coalition government and the June Budget did earlier this year,” he said.

“Helping the UK out of recession has been a bit like peeling back an onion – removing one-by-one the risks to the economy in order to re-build business confidence.”

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Identity fraud now costs £1.9bn

Shredded documentsStolen identities enable other types of crime, the NFA warns

Fraudsters obtain more than £1,000 from every identity they steal, official figures suggest.

The National Fraud Authority (NFA) said fraudsters who stole identities had gained £1.9bn in the past year.

Their frauds had affected 1.8 million people, the NFA estimated.

It said the stolen identities had been put to a variety of dishonest uses, such as buying goods or services, obtaining state benefits, or opening bank accounts under false identities.

The NFA, set up in 2008, said its figures had been worked out with the help of the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau.

Dr Bernard Herdan, the chief executive of the NFA, pointed out that stolen identities were often used to commit crimes other than fraud.

This included dodging the police or other law enforcement agencies, terrorism and people trafficking.

“Stolen and false identities are a significant enabler of crime,” said Dr Herdan.

“Losses from identity theft and false identities don’t just affect the individual, but also hit the public and private sectors.”

The NFA estimated that businesses and organisations lost £800m a year due to the expense of trying to combat identity fraud.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Europe bid to enhance Russia ties

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy talk at a summit in Brussels (4 October 2010)The summit in Deauville is being billed as a brainstorming session for the leaders

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is to hold two days of talks with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.

The summit in the Normandy seaside resort of Deauville will discuss ways of enhancing economic and security co-operation between the EU and Russia.

Germany and France also want to build closer ties between Russia and Nato.

Nato will unveil its new strategy in Lisbon next month, and European leaders hope Mr Medvedev will lend his support.

This is being billed as a brainstorming session for the three leaders.

No big decisions are expected – not least because the German and French leaders do not want to be seen to be bypassing the European Union – but they will be discussing big ideas such as a proposed security and economic partnership.

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French officials say that tensions between Russia and the West have eased over the last couple of years, and they detect a new openness on the part of Moscow, which they want to consolidate.

There are differences – notably over Nato’s proposed European missile shield, which will be the main subject of discussion at the alliance’s upcoming summit.

But even on this, Moscow seems less suspicious than it used to, and the German and French leaders will try to persuade Mr Medvedev that Russia too could benefit.

Mr Sarkozy, of course, has other preoccupations at the moment, with waves of protests against his pension reforms.

For him it is a chance to play the statesman – and briefly forget his pressing domestic concerns.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Australia expands asylum centres

Sri Lankan asylum-seekers on board their boat stopped by Indonesian authorities on their way to Australia (2009)An increase in the number of asylum seekers has put pressure on Australia’s existing facilities

The Australian government has unveiled plans for two more detention centres to accommodate an increasing number of asylum seekers.

It also announced that children and family groups would be moved from detention into community-based accommodation.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard said it was not the Australian way to have children behind razor wire.

The new detention centres in Perth and Adelaide will house 2,000 people.

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Asylum and immigration issues were focal points in Australia’s recent election campaign.

The country’s policy of mandatory detention for all migrants without papers while their asylum applications are processed has been criticised by the United Nations.

Ms Gillard said “significant numbers” of minors and families would be moved into community-based accommodation as part of a more “humane” approach to the issue.

“I don’t think it is the Australian way to have kids behind razor wire in the hope that that is a deterrent”

Julia Gillard Australian prime minister

“This is especially important for children, for whom protracted detention can have negative impacts on their development and mental health,” Ms Gillard said.

“I don’t think it is the Australian way to have kids behind razor wire in the hope that that is a deterrent,” she added.

She said several hundred families would be moved by the middle of next year.

Australian Immigration Minister Chris Bowen said that while the country needed to maintain one of the toughest asylum policies in the world, improvements could be made to the treatment of asylum seekers.

“Children will be able to, and obliged to, attend school normally and to live a normal life,” he said.

The government is in talks with East Timor and Indonesia about a plan to build a regional processing centre for asylum seekers.

Earlier conservative governments has instituted the so-called “Pacific solution” under which asylum seekers were detained on the Pacific island of Nauru while their claims were processed.

Mr Bowen said the best deterrent would be a rigorous system of checks on whether applicants fulfilled conditions to be granted refugee status.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Few banks sign tax conduct code

George OsborneChancellor George Osborne has pledged to force the remaining banks to sign the code of conduct

The only bank without substantial state ownership to sign the government’s code of conduct on taxation is Standard Chartered, the BBC has learned.

Three others, Lloyds Banking Group, RBS and Northern Rock, have also signed.

Chancellor George Osborne has said he would force the remaining 11 of the 15 largest banks to sign up to the code.

It recommends that banks adhere to the spirit rather than just the letter of the law when advising their clients regarding tax avoidance schemes.

The code was published a few months after the government had directly and indirectly supported the banking sector with £850bn of taxpayers’ money.

Its basis was to encourage banks to consider the wider implications for the economy of their actions, including advice given to customers to minimise payment of tax in the UK.

Apart from banks with substantial taxpayer stakes such as Lloyds Banking Group, RBS and Northern Rock, just one other bank has signed up to the code – Standard Chartered – and it has only a modest presence in the UK.

The banks which have so far failed to join the scheme include Barclays, Santander and HSBC, which have substantial operations in the UK – and have indirectly benefited from taxpayer support, says BBC business correspondent Joe Lynam.

Spending review branding

A special BBC News season examining the approaching cuts to public sector spending

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Mr Osborne said he compel all major banks operating in the UK to sign up from next month.

The British Bankers’ Association has said its members “would continue to work with HM Revenue & Customs on issues relating to tax”.

The Labour government introduced the code – stipulating minimum standards of tax compliance – in 2009.

It followed reports of banks participating in large scale tax avoidance schemes using a series of complex transactions and financial instruments.

The code calls on banks to ensure that their tax obligations and those of their customers are observed – and that they do not go out of their way to avoid tax for themselves or clients.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

‘Key time’ to solve nature crisis

Exhibit in paper outside the convention centre in NagoyaDelegates will consider adopting new set of targets for 2020 that aim to tackle biodiversity loss

A major UN meeting aimed at finding solutions to the world’s nature crisis opens on Monday in Japan.

Species are going extinct at 100-1,000 times the natural rate, key habitat is disappearing, and ever more water and land is being used to support people.

Some economists say this is already damaging human prosperity.

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting will discuss why governments failed to curb these trends by 2010, as they pledged in 2002.

Delegates will also try to finalise a long-delayed agreement on exploiting natural resources in a fair and equitable way.

Before the start of the two-week meeting, Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Programme (Unep), said it was a crucial point in attempts to stem the loss of biodiversity.

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“There are moments when issues mature in terms of public perception and political attention, and become key times for action,” he told the BBC.

“And this is a moment when the recognition that biodiversity and ecosystems need preservation urgently is high, when people are concerned by it, and are demanding more action from the global community.”

A UN-sponsored team of economists has calculated that loss of biodiversity and ecosystems is costing the human race $2 trillion to $5 trillion a year.

Governments first agreed back in 1992, at the Rio Earth Summit, that the ongoing loss of biodiversity needed attention. The CBD was born there, alongside the UN climate convention.

“[The Access and Benefit Sharing] protocol will be a future investment for the human family as a whole”

Ahmed Djoghlaf Executive secretary, Convention on Biological Diversity

It aims to preserve the diversity of life on Earth, facilitate the sustainable use of plants and animals, and allow fair and equitable exploitation of natural genetic resources.

The convention acquired teeth 10 years later, at the Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development.

Noting that nature’s diversity is “the foundation upon which human civilisation has been built”, governments pledged “to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth”.

Since 2002, most measures of the health of the natural world have gone downhill rather than up.

The majority of species studied over the period are moving closer to extinction rather than further away, while important natural habitat such as forests, wetlands, rivers and coral reefs continue to shrink or be disturbed.

“Since the 1960s we’ve doubled our food consumption, our water consumption,” said Jonathan Baillie, director of conservation programmes at the Zoological Society of London (ZSL).

Newly discovered katydid in Papua New Guinea (6 September 2009)2010 is the International Year of Biodiversity

“The world’s population has doubled, and the economy has grown sixfold; in 2050 there will be 9.2 billion people on the planet.”

There are signs of change in some regions. The forest area is growing in Europe and China, while deforestation is slowing in Brazil.

About 12% of the world’s land is now under some form of protection.

But in other areas, countries – particularly in the tropics – have made little progress towards the 2010 target.

Government delegates here will consider adopting a new set of targets for 2020 that aim to tackle the causes of biodiversity loss – the expansion of agriculture, pollution, climate change, the spread of alien invasive species, the increasing use of natural resources – which conservationists believe might be a more effective option than setting targets on nature itself.

Delegates will also be negotiating a draft agreement on exploiting the genetic resources of the natural world fairly and sustainably.

The protocol, named Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS), aims to prevent “biopiracy” while enabling societies with abundant plant and animal life to profit from any drugs or other products that might be made from them.

Forest clearance in Brazil (2008)Deforestation is slowing in Brazil

Agreement on ABS has been pursued since 1992 without producing a result. But after four years of preparatory talks, officials believe the remaining differences can be hammered out here.

“We are confident that on 29 October, we’ll celebrate the birth of another baby, with the support of all parties, and we’ll have a protocol on access and benefit sharing,” said Ahmed Djoghlaf, CBD executive secretary.

“This protocol will be a future investment for the human family as a whole.”

However, the bitter politicking that has soured the atmosphere in a number of UN environment processes – most notably at the Copenhagen climate summit – threatens some aspects of the Nagoya meeting.

Some developing nations are insisting that the ABS protocol be signed off here before they will agree to the establishment of an international scientific panel to assess biodiversity issues.

The Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is due to be signed off during the current UN General Assembly session in New York.

Many experts believe it is necessary if scientific evidence on the importance of biodiversity loss is to be transmitted effectively to governments, in the same way that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assembles evidence that governments can use when deciding whether to tackle climate change.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Early menopause genes unravelled

A menopausal womanA woman’s ability to conceive decreases around ten years before the menopause

Research into the genetics of early menopause may lead to a simple test for women, says a UK scientist.

One in 20 women starts their menopause before the age of 46 – which can affect their chances of conceiving even a decade earlier.

The study, published in Human Molecular Genetics, found that four genes working in combination appeared to raise the risk significantly.

This could eventually help identify women at greatest risk.

Menopause is normally triggered when the number of remaining eggs in the ovary falls below about 1,000.

However, the biological controls which determine how quickly this ovarian egg reserve is used up are less well understood.

The researchers, from the University of Exeter and the Institute of Cancer Research, looked at four genes already thought to have some link to the menopause.

“A woman’s ability to conceive decreases on average ten years before she starts the menopause.”

Dr Anna Murray University of Exeter

They took 2,000 women who had experienced early menopause, and a similar number of women who had entered the menopause at the normal age.

They found that the presence of each of the four genes appeared to have some influence on the age of menopause.

Egg depletion

When more than one was found in a woman’s genetic makeup, the impact was even greater.

Dr Anna Murray, from the University of Exeter, said that the ability to predict menopause was not just important at the time, but could be crucial to decisions made many years earlier.

In particular, the quicker-than-expected depletion of the egg reserve could make a difference to a woman’s ability to conceive.

She said: “It is estimated that a woman’s ability to conceive decreases on average ten years before she starts the menopause.

“Therefore, those who are destined to have an early menopause and delay childbearing until their 30s are more likely to have problems conceiving.”

She added: “These findings are the first stage in developing an easy and relatively inexpensive genetic test which could help the one in 20 women who may be affected.”

Professor Anthony Swerdlow, from the Institute of Cancer Research, described the findings as a “valuable step” towards helping women work out if they are at risk.

“This may in turn allow them to make informed decisions about their future fertility,” he said.

This is not the first attempt to find a way to identify those women who are at greatest risk of an early menopause.

Other methods include using ultrasound to assess the number of eggs left in the ovary, to try to work out how quickly that number is falling.

The latest study is part of a major effort – the Breakthrough Generations Study – following the fortunes of 100,000 women in an effort to reveal the causes of diseases such as breast cancer.

Iranian scientists also say that measuring levels of a hormone called AMH on a three-yearly basis may also be able to predict the problem years in advance.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Jobs market drops to one-year low

job centreThe number of people finding permanent jobs fell again in September

The labour market in Scotland has weakened to its worst state in almost a year, figures have suggested.

The Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs showed the amount of permanent jobs available fell in September, with average salaries also down.

The index rating assigned by the report to gauge the jobs market was the lowest in 11 months and showed Scotland continued to underperform the UK.

Unemployment rose 13,000 in Scotland over the past three months, to 231,000.

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The Bank of Scotland study showed that the number of people who found permanent work fell at the sharpest rate in 13 months, although there was a growth in demand for short-term workers.

Donald MacRae, chief economist at Bank of Scotland, said: “The reduction in the number of permanent jobs available on the Scottish labour market, as well as a fall in the number of people actually placed in full-time employment, is another indication of the dip in business confidence in Scotland.

“We are, however, continuing to see strong demand for temporary staff.

“The number of candidates placed in temporary positions rose at the strongest rate for three months, while the number of temporary vacancies rose for the 11th successive month.”

The number of people who found permanent jobs in September fell for the third successive month and at the fastest pace since August 2009.

The report also showed that average salaries for permanent staff fell for the fourth successive month in September. This decline was the sharpest since November 2009.

Glasgow-based recruiters saw the fastest growth in permanent job placements, while those in Edinburgh saw the sharpest rise in temporary staff billings.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Public services reforms proposed

Montage (from left to right) of elderly person, youths on street and hospital ward The report suggests some councils or health boards should innovate with health, justice and social care

Demand for Scotland’s current range of public services will require another £27bn over the next 15 years, according to a new report.

The National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts (Nesta) said extra resources will be needed, mainly because of the rising number of older people and the nation’s poor health.

The report has come as Holyrood faces a £42bn budget gap over the same period.

Nesta recommended radical reforms to Scotland’s public services.

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It argued that to make services more sustainable, radical reform needs to become a more significant part of the Scottish government’s strategy towards spending reductions.

Nesta’s Radical Scotland report said more money should be put into reducing the pressure for more services at more cost, rather than focussing on meeting need once problems have become acute.

“Mainstream service delivery remains largely designed to react to problems rather than to prevent and solve them,” it said.

The report proposed some councils or health boards should be freed up to innovate with health, justice and social care.

With “new community status”, they would be given financial incentives to invest in change but with an expectation that the savings and lessons learned would be shared with other parts of the country.

Nesta, which was set up with Lottery funding to provide innovative answers to economic and social challenges, also looked at the cost of criminal justice.

It has proposed that more money should be spent on preventing drugs-related and drink-related crime and other social costs rather than spending more money on tackling the consequences.

The report calculated drink and drug-related long-term illness would cost the Scottish government £410m more per year by 2025, totalling £4bn over the next 15 years.

They said the growing number of older people, and of very old people, will push up government costs by £1.1bn per year within only six years.

If nothing was done to stop rising trends in prisoner numbers, the cost of jailing Scots would rise by as much as £250m per year to nearly £700m.

Among the ideas taken from outside Scotland, Nesta cited a decision taken in Texas not to build another jail, but to put the cost (at $500m or £312m) into treatment for mental health, substance abuse and post-prison support.

As a result, it is claimed the prison population rose by 90% less than anticipated, and the state government saved $434m (£271m).

Nesta said some groups in Scotland were already taking a similar approach on a small scale, such as East Renfrewshire’s School, Social Work, Police and Community programme (SSPC). It argued that approach to tackling violent and anti-social behaviour among young people helped reduce knife-carrying and vandalism by 20%.

The Radical Scotland report also said current responses to the UK government’s spending plans were not sustainable, “given the limits of traditional efficiency measures and the cost of rising demand for public services”.

It claimed even the contentious money-saving measures suggested in the Independent Budget Review, led by Crawford Beveridge, would still leave the Scottish government £1bn short of the necessary cuts by 2014-15.

Nesta’s chief executive Jonathan Kestenbaum said: “Numerous examples from Scotland demonstrate how services can be refocused at a local level to prevent longer term problems.

“Scotland must make radical reform of its public services the driving mission.”

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.