Clarke vows to end prisoner rise

Ken Clarke

Ken Clarke: “Serious knife crimes will get serious prison sentences, but we’re not setting absolute tariffs”

Related stories

Justice Secretary Ken Clarke is due to set out proposals to reform sentencing in England and Wales.

A Green Paper will put the emphasis on making prisons more purposeful and toughening up community sentences.

The reforms are driven by the need to cut the £4bn prison and probation budget by about 20% over four years.

Earlier, Mr Clarke said a Conservative election pledge that anyone caught carrying a knife could expect a jail term would not be implemented.

Ministers are aiming to cut the prison population by 3,000 to reduce costs.

They are expected to propose measures to restrict the use of indeterminate sentences, extend the use of bail for suspects and give greater sentence reductions for defendants who plead guilty early.

BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw says the key reform will be to make community sentences a more credible alternative to custody.

Mr Clarke believes unpaid work schemes undertaken by offenders should be more punitive, with activities becoming more physical and intense.

But plans in the Conservative manifesto for prisoners to “earn” their release, as part of a so-called Min-Max sentencing regime, have been scrapped, as has the pledge that anyone convicted of a knife crime can expect a jail term.

Asked by BBC political editor Nick Robinson on Monday whether people caught carrying knives could expect a lesser punishment, Mr Clarke said: “Anybody who is guilty of serious knife crime will go to prison but I’m not in favour of absolute rules.

“I’m in favour of actually allowing judges to see how nasty the offender is, see what the offence was, see what the best way of protecting the public from him is.”

In the Conservative election manifesto, the party said four out of five people convicted of a knife crime did not go to prison and they would send a “serious, unambiguous message that carrying a knife is totally unacceptable”.

The document said: “We will make it clear that anyone convicted of a knife crime can expect to face a prison sentence.”

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Tesco sees UK ‘consumer recovery’

Tesco logoTesco’s sales have risen both in the UK and overseas
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Tesco has reported a rise in third-quarter sales, saying it is “continuing to see evidence of a steady consumer recovery” in the UK.

Its like-for-like UK sales excluding petrol – which pulls out the impact of new store openings – rose 1.5% in the three months to 27 November.

Tesco’s overseas sales growth was stronger, increasing by 4.1% on the same measurement.

The supermarket giant said it was being helped by an improving global economy.

Tesco saw its biggest percentage sales growth in the US, where they rose by 9.8% on a like-for-like basis.

It said this was helped by a “particularly successful” Thanksgiving holiday period, and higher customer numbers.

While the rate of sales growth was stronger overseas, the UK remains by far the most important market for Tesco.

It currently has 2,482 British stores, which compares with 663 outlets in Thailand, its next largest national market.

In the US, Tesco has just 145 branches at present. Poland is its largest market on mainland Europe, with 336 shops.

Like-for-like sales in mainland Europe advanced by 3.6%, while those in Asia added 4.3%.

Tesco’s group-wide total sales – which includes stores that have opened during the past year – increased by 8.8%.

Chief executive Terry Leahy said: “Our continued investment in the shopping trip, and our new space opening programme across our markets, are giving us good sales momentum and market share gains.”

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Man in crane protest outside Dail

CraneThe protest placards refer to Anglo Irish Bank and ministerial pensions

A small crane has been parked outside the entrance of the Irish parliament buildings in Dublin ahead of the budget which is due to be announced on Tuesday.

The cherry-picker, which is covered in protest placards, was moved into position early this morning.

Slogans regarding Anglo Irish Bank and ministerial pensions were displayed on the crane.

Irish police removed a number of the anti-government slogans from the crane.

A man in the cage at the top of the crane, the arm of which has been fully extended, has begun playing music through loud speakers and has thrown a number of tennis balls to the ground below.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Shock of the old

Three generations of womenDifferent generations of women are witnessing an altering pensions landscape
Related stories

Young people are facing poverty in old age by turning their backs on saving for a pension.

Official figures show that the number of women aged 22 to 29 in the UK who are signing up for a workplace pension has fallen for four years in a row, marking the most rapid decline of any age group.

Pensions Minister Steve Webb has told the BBC that people are waiting “decades” after starting work before they consider how to pay for retirement.

And now experts are warning that a new scheme to ensure employees get into the savings habit will be insufficient and offer workers a false sense of security.

At the moment, more than half of the UK’s single pensioners have a pension income of less than £10,000, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

The UK has an ageing population. By 2034, 23% of the population is projected to be aged 65 and over, up from 15% in 1984.

An estimated eight million workers have no pension provision, and face having to rely on the state pension – currently £5,078 a year – and benefits to pay for 20 years or so of retirement.

And it is workers aged under 30 who are the least likely to have signed up for a workplace pension scheme – generally the most generous pension policies. Fewer than 40% of men and women aged 22 to 29 contribute to a scheme offered by their employer.

Workplace pension scheme membership graphic

For today’s 20-somethings, pensions have fallen on the priority list as they face up to more pressing financial concerns.

Steve Webb

“In the past the pension system assumed that women did not need a pension they needed a husband”

Steve Webb Pensions MinisterHow to save for a pensionAsk your question to an expert

“I am struggling to pay off debt and so at the moment every penny of my monthly salary is needed for rent, living and debt,” says Kate Croxton, a 27-year-old charity worker from Sheffield.

“After my debts are cleared I think the focus at my age is to start saving to invest in property. This seems more relevant and urgent than a pension at this point in my life.”

It has often been said that the only people aged in their 20s who think about pensions are those who sell them.

But Pensions Minister Steve Webb says he is concerned that complications, as well as poor awareness of pension system, has turned many young people away from thinking about how they will fund old age.

“Most young people starting in a job do not get around to thinking about pensions for decades,” he says.

“When young, they think they will live forever, and pensions is something for their granny. There is a danger in thinking that your home will be your pension.

“None of us are expecting 20-somethings to become pension geeks, but what we do want is to demystify it, make it simple and ask the question – ‘what sort of standard of living do you want when you are old’.”

He also called on women especially to give it more thought.

“We want to make sure that more women have their own pension pot. In the past the pension system assumed that women did not need a pension they needed a husband,” he says.

“That is a ridiculous notion now.”

He believes that a new system that will automatically enrol people into a workplace pension scheme will get young people into a savings habit.

It will also tackle the dividing line between pension provision depending on people’s choice of career, he says.

At present, workplace pension scheme take-up is more than 90% in public sector jobs such as public administration, defence and social security, compared with just 6% in shorter-term accommodation and catering work.

Key pension factsPensioner couples received an average income of £564 a week in 2008-9In 2008-9, 53% of single pensioners had a total pension income of less than £10,000 a yearAbout 34% of men and 38% of women aged 22 to 29 are members of an employer pension schemeBetween 2005 and 2009, women aged 22 to 29 were among those who experienced the biggest decline in pension scheme membership

Source: Office for National Statistics

Those without access to a workplace pension, aged 22 or more and earning at least £5,715 a year, will be enrolled by their employer into the National Employment Savings Trust (Nest) scheme.

Contributions from staff and employers will also be phased in. Until October 2016, the minimum overall level of contributions will be just 2%, with 1% coming from employers.

From October 2016 to September 2017, total contributions will be 5% with 2% coming from employers. From October 2017, the total minimum contribution level will be 8%, with employers contributing at least 3%.

Questions have been raised as to whether these contributions will be sufficient for an adequate standard of living in retirement.

The BBC asked actuary firm Barnett Waddingham to estimate how much a single man, aged 25, earning a relatively typical £26,000 a year could expect in retirement from the Nest scheme.

Sheena Khanna

“Retirement just seems so far off, I am 24 and it is 40 years until it’s going to be relevant to me”

Sheena Khanna Theatre employee‘Retirement just seems so far off’

With investment returns of 7%, he could expect an annual pension of £8,870.

“The returns on a standard Nest savings plan may not be that great, even after 40 years of contributing,” says Malcolm McLean, consultant at Barnett Waddingham.

“There is a risk that people will switch off and just save the minimum amount and think that is me sorted, I have got a pension plan, it is all in hand. We need to get it across that auto-enrolment and Nest might be just their starting point.”

A report by the Royal Society of Arts, published this week, argues that the UK has an inadequate pension provision compared with the rest of Europe.

Although it welcomes Nest, it says that the scheme is being hamstrung during the early years of its existence by a limit on individual’s contribution levels at about £3,600 a year.

Others argue that an entire change of culture is needed to make pensions affordable.

“What I find astonishing is that this good news story – that we are all living for longer – is becoming a bad news story that we are all going to be poorer,” says Ros Altmann, director general of Saga.

“It does not need to be that way.”

She says that people need to rethink the way they approach later life. This could mean working part-time during pension years.

Without adequate savings, many people may no longer have the choice other than to stay at work.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Suicide bomb on minister’s convoy

Map

A suicide bomber has tried to kill the chief minister of Pakistan’s southern province of Balochistan, blowing himself up near his convoy.

At least one person died in the blast but Chief Minister Nawab Muhammad Aslam Khan Raisani escaped harm as he was in another vehicle, police said.

Four people were injured when the bomber attacked the motorcade in the provincial capital Quetta.

Balochistan has been at the centre of a decade-long insurgency.

Mr Raisani, an influential tribal leader, is a member of the country’s ruling Pakistan People’s Party.

It is the second time this month that a senior government official has been attacked in Balochistan.

Provincial Governor Nawab Zulfiqar Magsi was lucky to escape with his life when his convoy was hit by a roadside bomb in Kalat district on 1 December.

The Baloch Liberation Army, an insurgent group, said it carried out that attack. Balochistan has been at the centre of an insurgency for nearly a decade.

Its provincial capital and northern districts are also home to Taliban militants and Islamist groups.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Newspaper review

Papers

Nine days after the Wikileaks website began releasing secret US diplomatic cables, and the pressure on its founder Julian Assange is intensifying.

The Guardian expects Mr Assange to appear in court in Britain on Tuesday.

His lawyers have announced he will meet police to discuss an extradition warrant from Sweden relating to allegations of sexual assaults.

The paper says Mr Assange appears to be reconciling himself to a lengthy court battle against extradition.

The Daily Mail quotes Bank of England figures revealing that bank customers are being “crippled” by the highest overdraft charges since records began.

Rates for authorised overdrafts – those agreed in advance – reached just over 19% in October.

The paper says this means the typical customer who goes overdrawn is paying a rate 38 times higher than the base rate of half of one per cent.

The Mail describes this situation as “licensed extortion”.

The Daily Star suggests the freezing conditions are threatening to prevent deliveries of Christmas food and even presents arriving in time.

Meanwhile, the Sun claims that SAS “hit squads” are protecting packed shopping centres from terrorists.

The elite troops are said to be in position to foil any Mumbai-style attack on Christmas shoppers.

According to the paper, security was also stepped up at the country’s airports over the weekend.

The Daily Telegraph says prisoners who declare themselves to be Pagans are to be allowed time off work for festivals celebrating, among other things, promiscuity and lactating sheep.

New guidelines say Pagan inmates must have the same rights as Christians, Muslims and other worshippers.

But, the Telegraph muses, one holiday during which they are unlikely to be granted full rights is Lammas.

Traditionally, worshippers go on country walks.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Fears over pupil tests ‘disaster’

Students in classroomPisa is an international standardised assessment for 15-year-olds
Related stories

Test results comparing Welsh pupils with the rest of the world are expected to be a “disaster”.

BBC Wales understands the assembly government is preparing for another poor performance in the Pisa assessments.

They test up to 10,000 15-year-olds in each of 65 countries in reading, maths, science and problem solving.

The assembly government would not comment until the results are formally released.

But sources close to the assembly government say the publication of the results on Tuesday will be a “reality check”.

The Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) performance tables are carried out every three years and grade teenagers against their peers in other countries.

“”The results must be put in the context of the funding gap between Wales and England”

Rex Phillips NASUWT Cymru

In the last set of results conducted in 2006 and published in 2007, Wales performed the worst of the UK nations.

Although Welsh students performed well on science, the report revealed below-average performances in reading and maths, comparable to eastern European countries such as Croatia and Azerbaijan.

The BBC has been told that assembly government officials are working on the assumption the results will be a “disaster”.

Wales will be under scrutiny to close the gap with the rest of the UK after last time.

After the last set of results the assembly government’s aim would have been to close the gap on Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.

Rex Phillips, Wales organiser of the NASUWT, said the results should not be used as a “stick to beat teachers with”.

He added: “The (education) minister should avoid knee-jerk reactions and work with the teaching profession, not against it.

“The results must be put in the context of the funding gap between Wales and England.”

A Welsh Assembly Government spokesman said they would not be commenting until the confidential results are released.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Facing poverty in old age

Three generations of womenDifferent generations of women are witnessing an altering pensions landscape
Related stories

Young people are facing poverty in old age by turning their backs on saving for a pension.

Official figures show that the number of women aged 22 to 29 in the UK who are signing up for a workplace pension has fallen for four years in a row, marking the most rapid decline of any age group.

Pensions Minister Steve Webb has told the BBC that people are waiting “decades” after starting work before they consider how to pay for retirement.

And now experts are warning that a new scheme to ensure employees get into the savings habit will be insufficient and offer workers a false sense of security.

At the moment, more than half of the UK’s single pensioners have a pension income of less than £10,000, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

The UK has an ageing population. By 2034, 23% of the population is projected to be aged 65 and over, up from 15% in 1984.

An estimated eight million workers have no pension provision, and face having to rely on the state pension – currently £5,078 a year – and benefits to pay for 20 years or so of retirement.

And it is workers aged under 30 who are the least likely to have signed up for a workplace pension scheme – generally the most generous pension policies. Fewer than 40% of men and women aged 22 to 29 contribute to a scheme offered by their employer.

Workplace pension scheme membership graphic

For today’s 20-somethings, pensions have fallen on the priority list as they face up to more pressing financial concerns.

Steve Webb

“In the past the pension system assumed that women did not need a pension they needed a husband”

Steve Webb Pensions MinisterHow to save for a pensionAsk your question to an expert

“I am struggling to pay off debt and so at the moment every penny of my monthly salary is needed for rent, living and debt,” says Kate Croxton, a 27-year-old charity worker from Sheffield.

“After my debts are cleared I think the focus at my age is to start saving to invest in property. This seems more relevant and urgent than a pension at this point in my life.”

It has often been said that the only people aged in their 20s who think about pensions are those who sell them.

But Pensions Minister Steve Webb says he is concerned that complications, as well as poor awareness of pension system, has turned many young people away from thinking about how they will fund old age.

“Most young people starting in a job do not get around to thinking about pensions for decades,” he says.

“When young, they think they will live forever, and pensions is something for their granny. There is a danger in thinking that your home will be your pension.

“None of us are expecting 20-somethings to become pension geeks, but what we do want is to demystify it, make it simple and ask the question – ‘what sort of standard of living do you want when you are old’.”

He also called on women especially to give it more thought.

“We want to make sure that more women have their own pension pot. In the past the pension system assumed that women did not need a pension they needed a husband,” he says.

“That is a ridiculous notion now.”

He believes that a new system that will automatically enrol people into a workplace pension scheme will get young people into a savings habit.

It will also tackle the dividing line between pension provision depending on people’s choice of career, he says.

At present, workplace pension scheme take-up is more than 90% in public sector jobs such as public administration, defence and social security, compared with just 6% in shorter-term accommodation and catering work.

Key pension factsPensioner couples received an average income of £564 a week in 2008-9In 2008-9, 53% of single pensioners had a total pension income of less than £10,000 a yearAbout 34% of men and 38% of women aged 22 to 29 are members of an employer pension schemeBetween 2005 and 2009, women aged 22 to 29 were among those who experienced the biggest decline in pension scheme membership

Source: Office for National Statistics

Those without access to a workplace pension, aged 22 or more and earning at least £5,715 a year, will be enrolled by their employer into the National Employment Savings Trust (Nest) scheme.

Contributions from staff and employers will also be phased in. Until October 2016, the minimum overall level of contributions will be just 2%, with 1% coming from employers.

From October 2016 to September 2017, total contributions will be 5% with 2% coming from employers. From October 2017, the total minimum contribution level will be 8%, with employers contributing at least 3%.

Questions have been raised as to whether these contributions will be sufficient for an adequate standard of living in retirement.

The BBC asked actuary firm Barnett Waddingham to estimate how much a single man, aged 25, earning a relatively typical £26,000 a year could expect in retirement from the Nest scheme.

Sheena Khanna

“Retirement just seems so far off, I am 24 and it is 40 years until it’s going to be relevant to me”

Sheena Khanna Theatre employee‘Retirement just seems so far off’

With investment returns of 7%, he could expect an annual pension of £8,870.

“The returns on a standard Nest savings plan may not be that great, even after 40 years of contributing,” says Malcolm McLean, consultant at Barnett Waddingham.

“There is a risk that people will switch off and just save the minimum amount and think that is me sorted, I have got a pension plan, it is all in hand. We need to get it across that auto-enrolment and Nest might be just their starting point.”

A report by the Royal Society of Arts, published this week, argues that the UK has an inadequate pension provision compared with the rest of Europe.

Although it welcomes Nest, it says that the scheme is being hamstrung during the early years of its existence by a limit on individual’s contribution levels at about £3,600 a year.

Others argue that an entire change of culture is needed to make pensions affordable.

“What I find astonishing is that this good news story – that we are all living for longer – is becoming a bad news story that we are all going to be poorer,” says Ros Altmann, director general of Saga.

“It does not need to be that way.”

She says that people need to rethink the way they approach later life. This could mean working part-time during pension years.

Without adequate savings, many people may no longer have the choice other than to stay at work.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Ireland faces ‘tough’ budget vote

Protesters in DublinIreland’s deal to secure bail-out aid brought thousands of protesters onto the streets of Dublin

The Republic of Ireland is set to unveil more details of its controversial budget cuts.

The ruling Fianna Fail party is due on Tuesday to present what will be the toughest budget in Dublin’s history.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is planning an initial 6bn euros (£5bn) of cuts in welfare spending and job losses.

It is part of a deal to secure an 85bn-euro bail-out, but Fianna Fail’s slim majority means the vote could be close.

Once the budget is cleared by parliament it will trigger the first tranche of bail-out funds from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

The government previously announced cuts under a four-year National Recovery Plan unveiled two weeks ago.

Dublin is looking to save about 15bn euros over the period as it struggles to balance the books after its banking and property.

But on Tuesday prime minister Brian Cowen’s government is to announce its spending programme for this financial year, having already warned that 2010/11 was likely to see the biggest cuts of the four-year plan.

The Irish Republic’s generous welfare budget is a prime target for the axe.

Child benefit is being slashed, and social welfare spending – state pensions excluded – is being cut by 5%.

Thousands of public sector jobs will go. Civil service pay freezes will be imposed, and reform of the tax system will bring thousands of Irish people into the tax net. The minimum wage will be lowered.

Analysis

Dublin is a very cold place these days and the mood of the people matches the weather.

Politicians from the ruling Fianna Fail coalition usually enjoy a friendly and gregarious relationship with voters on all sides but that is no longer the case.

Voters are champing at the bit to get to the ballot box and punish this government.

That urge will intensify today when even further swingeing cuts are announced in the budget for 2011 including a de facto rise in income tax by dramatically widening the tax net as well significant cuts on social welfare.

Usually budgets contain some sweeteners for political reasons. One suspects that no amount of Canderel or Hermacetas would be able to sugar coat this most bitter of fiscal pills.

That the populace must endure this hardship so that failed Irish banks can be propped up is likely to live long in memories.

Mr Cowen says the cuts are necessary because Ireland was living way beyond its means.

Surging bond yields – the interest rates Dublin pays to borrow money – forced the government to ask for a bail-out on 28 November, as the Republic could no longer afford to raise money in the financial markets.

Mr Cowen, with his poll rating at a record low, needs to push the budget through to avoid having to call a snap election.

Failure to do so could plunge the Republic into a deeper crisis, one that could help spread contagion throughout the heavily-indebted eurozone.

Mr Cowen’s government only has a majority the Dail, or lower house of parliament, thanks the support of two independent MPs.

One of these MPs, Michael Lowry, pledged his support for the budget on Monday evening.

“The consequences of not passing a budget would be disastrous for Ireland and its people,” he said in a statement.

“Despite some adverse reaction in my constituency to this decision I feel duty bound to put the country’s interests first.”

The other independent MP, Jackie Healy-Rae, had yet to comment on whether he will vote for the budget.

And it is not clear if all opposition MPs will oppose the budget. There has been talk of some MPs abstaining from the vote, strengthening Mr Cowen’s hand.

But it is not essential that all parts of the budget are cleared on Tuesday.

The vote will be conducted via four separate ballots, and the budget must be passed within four months of Mr Lenihan presenting it to parliament.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Iranian nuclear talks to resume

Iranian opposition supporters in GenevaIranian opposition supporters have been protesting outside the UN building in Geneva

Iran and key world powers are due to hold a second day of talks over Tehran’s disputed nuclear programme.

The first day of talks in Geneva lasted nearly 10 hours and were described as “constructive” and “forward moving” by an Iranian official.

A Western source also said Monday’s talks were held “in a good atmosphere”.

Iran said on Sunday it had delivered its first domestically produced raw uranium and would go into the talks with “strength and power”.

Western powers fear Tehran may be trying to produce a nuclear weapon, but Tehran says its programme is purely peaceful.

An unnamed Iranian official, quoted by Reuters, said Tuesday’s talks would “fix the framework for future discussions during which we could talk about nuclear disarmament and about co-operation in the civil nuclear domain”.

“The (nuclear) right of Iran will not be discussed. If we agree on a framework, we could have several sessions of negotiations,” he said.

Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is meeting EU foreign affairs chief Baroness Ashton and senior officials from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the US, Russia, China, France and Britain – plus Germany.

Analysts say the best outcome that can be hoped for is simply that the two sides agree to hold further meetings.

The last Geneva talks, in October 2009, appeared to agree on a breakthrough deal under which Iran would export low-enriched uranium for processing abroad. However, the deal foundered after Iran introduced new conditions.

The UN Security Council has said that until Iran’s peaceful intentions can be fully established, it should stop enrichment and other nuclear activities.

Iran is under four sets of UN sanctions over its refusal to heed repeated Security Council ultimatums to suspend uranium enrichment.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Withdrawal hopes

James LandaleBy James Landale

British troops and trainees in AfghanistanThe training of Afghan troops and police is beginning to pay dividends, Mr Cameron thinks
Related stories

If it is December, it must be Afghanistan. With wearying inevitability, the pre-Christmas visit of a prime minister to the front line is now a fixed date on the political calendar.

David Cameron has come a little earlier than usual, taking advantage of a gap between votes on football and tuition fees to visit troops and test the water.

The context of this trip is not good. There has been the criticism of British forces by Afghan and US officials, made public via Wikileaks.

There has been a fake Taliban negotiator promoted, apparently, by MI6.

There has been the tragic killing by US forces of the aid worker hostage Linda Norgrove, and as the prime minister travelled out, the death by apparent friendly-fire of the 101st British serviceman to lose his life this year.

For all that though, the prime minister declares himself to be cautiously optimistic.

David Cameron uses a metal detectorThe prime minister visited troops in Helmand province in June

He is not the first prime minister to share this view, of course, and many hopes have been dashed since British troops first arrived here nine years ago.

But Mr Cameron says things are now different: There are 30,000 troops – US and UK – in Helmand, not the original 3,000.

There is a proper workable plan to tackle the Taliban.

And the training of Afghan police and troops is finally beginning to pay some dividends, despite the well documented problems – largely with the police – of corruption, drug addiction and incompetence.

Officials around Mr Cameron talk enthusiastically of poetry festivals taking place, music concerts, prisons working, bazaars opening and district governors actually doing their job.

Clearly they believe the tide is finally beginning to turn.

But David Cameron has another reason to sound so optimistic. His deadline of all British combat troops leaving Afghanistan by 2015 is a long way off.

His aim is to reassure the public that this conflict is not open-ended, but the risk is that people grow restless and ask why it is taking so long.

So, in the meantime they need reassurance that progress is being made, and that is why Mr Cameron is happy to predict that some troops at least will be home for Christmas. Next Christmas, that is.

This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.