Syria troops disperse Deraa rally

Syrian soldiers in Sheikh Daher Square, Latakia, 27 MarchThere is a heavy security presence in the port city of Latakia

Syrian troops have deployed in force in the northern city of Latakia, where at least 12 people have died in a wave of unrest that has shaken the regime.

Officials blamed foreign forces for the violence, but residents said pro-government gangs started the clashes.

The authorities said on Sunday they would end decades of emergency rule, after protests erupted in at least six cities on Friday.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is expected to address the nation soon.

Sources say Mr Assad is likely to announce on Tuesday that he is lifting the state of emergency after nearly 50 years and taking steps to annul other restrictions on civil liberties and political freedoms.

There are great hopes among many Syrians that President Assad’s speech will put an end to the recent tension, says the BBC’s Lina Sinjab in the capital, Damascus.

The unrest started in the southern town of Deraa on 18 March and has spread to several cities nationwide. It is the biggest threat to the rule of President Assad, 45, who succeeded his father Hafez on his death in 2000.

Officials say more than 30 people have died since the unrest began, but activists put the toll at more than 100.

An injured man in hospital in Latakia, 27 MarchSome 90 people have been wounded in this weekend’s violence in Latakia

Syrian troops are now in control of Latakia, 350km (220 miles) north-west of Damascus, our correspondent says.

The government says 12 people were killed during clashes on Friday and Saturday, but residents say the number could be higher.

The streets of Latakia, home to 450,000 people, were completely deserted on Sunday and all shops remained closed.

An Associated Press photographer said two police cars had been smashed in the main Sheikh Daher square.

The offices of SyriaTel, the mobile phone company owned in large part by a cousin of President Assad, had been burned, he said.

At one of the city’s two hospitals, officials said they had treated 90 wounded people on Friday. Many had gunshot wounds to the hands or feet, while others were in critical condition, he added.

Deadly violence has also gripped cities in southern Syria for 10 days.

On Saturday, demonstrators set fire to the Baath party’s local headquarters in the town of Tafas.

On Sunday, several hundred men were holding a sit-in at the Omari Mosque in the nearby town of Deraa, the original focus of protests and scene of a crackdown by security forces last week.

There have also been protests in Hama, a northern city where in 1982 the forces of President Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, killed thousands of people and razed much of the old quarter to put down an armed uprising by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.

Protesters have vowed to keep taking to the streets until all their demands for more freedom are met.

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The government has tried to calm the situation by promising concessions.

Analysts say there are divergent views within the Syrian leadership on handing the crisis – one group favours a crackdown on the dissent while the other prefers dialogue.

Jihad Makdissi, the spokesman for the Syrian embassy in London, told the BBC World Service that an inquiry was under way into the violence and deaths during recent anti-government protests.

He said the president had intervened to put an end to a “chaotic situation” in Latakia, where people were “vandalising government institutions” and burning cars.

Mr Makdissi said that the promised reforms would include more freedom of speech and a more “democratic environment”.

In London, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights released a list of 41 names of people reportedly detained on Friday in and around Damascus, Homs, Deir al-Zor and other cities.

Amnesty International has issued a list of 93 people it says have been detained.

Reuters news agency meanwhile reported Sunday that two of its journalists in Syria – producer Ayat Basma and cameraman Ezzat Baltaji – were missing.

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£180m bursary scheme replaces EMA

EMA protestersThe scrapping of EMA became part of the wave of student protests during the winter

The government is set to give details of a replacement scheme for Education Maintenance Allowances which were scrapped in England last year.

There have been reports that up to £180m could be available in discretionary support for students from low-income backgrounds.

The £560m EMA scheme had provided up to £30 per week to help teenagers stay on at sixth forms and colleges.

Education Secretary Michael Gove said the funding had been poorly-targeted.

But Labour’s Andy Burnham claimed scrapping the allowances would mean more youngsters dropping out of education and that social mobility would be “thrown into reverse”.

The funding, received by 650,000 16 to 19-year-olds in England, provided grants of between £10 and £30 per week – with the full amount for families with a household income of less than £21,817.

The allowances had been introduced by Labour in an attempt to tackle the longstanding problem of a high teenage drop-out rate from education, particularly among poorer students.

But the coalition government attacked the EMA scheme as wasteful – and said that it would replace it with a smaller, discretionary fund.

An anticipated increase in the size of this discretionary fund, to be announced on Monday, is likely to be seized upon by the opposition as evidence of a re-think.

Labour’s deputy leader, Harriet Harman, said it was going to be a “very half-hearted reinstatement”.

“The government were wrong to abolish it. I have seen the difference it made, not just to help people stay on, but also young people who do stay on don’t have to do so many hours part-time work to make ends meet.”

There are EMA schemes in Scotland and Wales which will continue. Allowances in Northern Ireland are under review.

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New radiation leak at Japan plant

Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan

The BBC’s Mark Worthington says many people in Japan are becoming increasingly concerned about what is going to happen in the future

Highly radioactive water has been found for the first time outside one of the reactor buildings at Japan’s quake-hit Fukushima nuclear plant, officials say.

The leak in a tunnel linked to the No 2 reactor has raised fears of radioactive liquid seeping into the environment.

Earlier, Japan’s government strongly criticised the plant’s operator, Tepco, over mistaken radiation readings.

Officials said the radiation scare inside the No 2 reactor was caused by a partial meltdown of fuel rods.

This discovery of highly radioactive water outside a reactor building is a worrying development, says the BBC’s Mark Worthington in Tokyo.

Up until now, pools of water with extremely high levels of radiation have only been detected within the reactor buildings themselves.

FUKUSHIMA UPDATEReactor 1: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas explosion. Highly radioactive water detected in reactorReactor 2: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas blast; containment damage suspected. Highly radioactive water detected in reactor and adjoining tunnelReactor 3: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas blast; containment damage possible. Spent fuel pond partly refilled with water after running low. Highly radioactive water detected in reactorReactor 4: Reactor shut down prior to quake. Fires and explosion in spent fuel pond; water level partly restoredReactors 5 & 6: Reactors shut down. Temperature of spent fuel pools now lowered after rising highQ&A: Fukushima radiation alert A new way to look at radiation

The water was found in an underground maintenance tunnel, with one end located about 55m (180ft) from the shore.

However, Tepco said there was no evidence that the contaminated water had reached the sea.

The discovery comes as Japan’s chief cabinet secretary said that the priority at the plant was to ensure that contaminated water did not leak into the soil or the sea.

Yukio Edano was speaking at a news conference a day after Tepco said radiation levels at reactor No 2 were 10 million times higher than normal before correcting that figure to 100,000.

“Considering the fact that the monitoring of radioactivity is a major condition to ensure safety, this kind of mistake is absolutely unacceptable,” Mr Edano said.

That water is the most contaminated to be found at the plant so far, exceeding 1,000 millisieverts per hour.

Tepco has apologised but the mistaken reading at the Fukushima Daiichi plant has called into question the operating company’s handling of the current crisis, our correspondent says.

Tepco has been criticised for a lack of transparency and failing to provide information more promptly and for making a number of mistakes, including worker clothing.

Two workers were taken to hospital last week after wading though contaminated water with inadequate protection. They were expected to be released on Monday.

Workers are battling to restore power and restart the cooling systems at the stricken nuclear plant, which was hit by a quake and tsunami over two weeks ago.

A child holds bottled water in Tokyo, Japan (24 March 2011)

Q&A: Health effects of radiation

A 9.0-magnitude earthquake on 11 March and the powerful tsunami it triggered is now known to have killed 10,901 people, with more than 17,000 people still missing.

More than 190,000 people are living in temporary shelters.

The BBC’s Roland Buerk in Rikuzentakata, Iwate prefecture, says prefabricated houses are being wired for electricity, but there is initially room for only 150 of the 1,000 survivors there.

In Miyagi prefecture – another of the worst-hit areas – the authorities estimate it will be three years before all of the rubble and debris has been cleared.

Some 20,000 US troops are bolstering Japan’s Self-Defence Forces, delivering aid in what is said to be the biggest bilateral humanitarian mission the US has conducted in Japan.

As well as shortages of food, water and fuel, survivors are also having to endure frequent aftershocks.

Japan lifted a tsunami warning earlier on Monday that was issued after a 6.5-magnitude quake struck off the northern coast.

It is not reported to have caused any injuries or damage.

For the first time since the disaster, the government has permitted a foreign medical team to enter the country to treat victims, the Japan Times reports.

The health ministry has lifted a ban on holders of foreign medical licences from practising in Japan, allowing a team of 53 medical aid workers from Israel, including 14 doctors and seven nurses, to work.

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Cocaine gang leader ‘made £1.4m’

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One of the leaders of a drugs gang now serving a 10-year jail sentence made £1.4m smuggling cocaine into north Wales, a court heard.

Andrew Ross, of Hawarden, Flintshire, admitted conspiring to smuggle cocaine at Mold Crown Court in 2009.

Following an investigation into his assets, Ross will have £20,000 seized under proceeds of crime laws, a judge at Mold decided on Monday.

The rest of the money can be pursued if Ross comes into funds in future.

A second member of the gang, who made £620,000, was given a confiscation order for £1,689.

Keiran Foulkes, of Halkyn, Flintshire, had previously been sentenced to 18 months after admitting being involved in supplying cocaine.

Again, the rest of the money can also be pursued in future.

Nine members of the gang were jailed in September 2009 for a total of more than 44 years.

The court was told that Ross, helped by others, organised the distribution of cocaine.

Drugs went from Rhyl, Denbighshire, to Anglesey and also into Flintshire, where they were further diluted at a house in Halkyn.

Ross was said to be one of the driving forces behind the conspiracy.

Police kept watch over many months, and officers produced telephone records which showed contact between defendants at crucial times.

The financial hearing under The Proceeds of Crime Act was told that Ross made £1.4m from drugs supply.

The confiscation order to the value of £20,325 was based on items police seized during the investigation.

He was given six months to pay or serve an additional 14 months in default.

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Sian’s family feeling ‘raw pain’

Sian O’CallaghanMiss O’Callaghan was found dead near Uffington, Oxfordshire
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A taxi driver is due in court later charged with the murder of 22-year-old Sian O’Callaghan.

Christopher Halliwell, 47, will appear before Swindon magistrates accused of killing Miss O’Callaghan, whose body was found near Uffington, Oxfordshire.

She had not been seen since leaving a nightclub in Swindon early on Saturday 19 March.

Mr Halliwell, of Ashbury Avenue, Swindon, was charged with the crime while in custody on Saturday evening.

Police said bones recovered during a search in Gloucestershire were believed to be of another woman estimated to be aged between 23 and 30.

Officers carried out a dig at Baxter’s Farm at Eastleach in the Gloucestershire Cotswolds, 17 miles from where Miss O’Callaghan’s body was discovered.

Det Supt Steve Fulcher of Wiltshire Police, who is leading the investigation, said forensic laboratory tests and a post-mortem examination would be carried out on the bones.

He said it had been indicated to him that the woman was taken from the Swindon area between 2003 and 2005.

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BA cabin crew back fresh strikes

BA planesThe row between the Unite union and BA has been going on since 2009
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Cabin crew at British Airways have voted overwhelmingly in favour of new strike action.

The vote opens the possibility of strikes over Easter, although union sources have previously played down the prospect of any April walk-out.

The ballot was a re-run of an invalid vote held before Christmas.

The row began about cost-cutting but now centres on travel concessions taken from striking staff and disciplinary action against Unite union members.

The latest ballot – the fourth in less than two years – saw 5,811 Unite members vote in favour of strike action, while 1,170 voted against. The turnout was 72%.

The union now has 28 days to announce any strike dates.

“We hope [ongoing talks] will bring an end to this dispute, which is what the overwhelming majority of our cabin crew want”

British Airways

Len McCluskey, Unite general secretary, said: “This vote shows that cabin crew remain determined to win justice.

“We urge BA’s boardroom to see this as a clear message that they must think again about how to regain the trust and confidence of a significant part of their cabin crew operation.”

Mr McCluskey added that the union was still “in discussions” with BA in an attempt to find a solution to the dispute.

BA stressed the need to find a resolution to the dispute.

“This is a time for co-operation, not confrontation,” BA said.

“We began talks with Unite earlier this month, and those talks are continuing. We hope they will bring an end to this dispute, which is what the overwhelming majority of our cabin crew want.”

BA has already said that, in the event of a strike, it will run all long-haul and many short-haul flights.

The dispute has already led to 22 days of strike action and has cost the airline more than £150m.

The dispute started in November 2009, when BA reduced the number of cabin crew on some long-haul flights from 15 to 14, and introduced a two-year pay freeze from 2010.

This led to a series of strikes in the spring and summer of last year.

Following these strikes, BA removed the travel concessions of those who took part, with some also facing disciplinary action.

It is this action by BA that is now central to the dispute, Unite says.

It wants the restoration of travel perks in full, arbitration through Acas of all cabin crew disciplinary cases related to the dispute, and restoration of pay to those who were genuinely sick during the dispute.

It also wants a full discussion about how BA has handled industrial relations within the company.

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Fatal blast at Yemen arms factory

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A blast at an ammunition factory in southern Yemen has killed at least 50 people and wounded many, doctors say.

The explosion shook the southern Yemeni town of Jaar and could be heard up to 10 miles (15km) away.

Reports said the plant had recently been seized by militants who, on Sunday, clashed with government forces in the town.

Officials said they expected the death toll to rise as bodies were still being recovered from the scene of the blast.

Deteriorating security

The factory, in the Khanfar area, close to Jaar city, makes munitions and Kalashnikov rifles, AP reports. Ambulances have been bringing the injured to Jaar’s al-Razi hospital.

There were reports on Sunday that Islamist militants had taken control of the city and the surrounding villages, in the southern Abyan province.

Economic and social problemsPoorest country in the Middle East with 40% of Yemenis living on less than $2 (£1.25) a dayMore than two-thirds of the population under the age of 24Illiteracy stands at over 50%, unemployment around 40%Dwindling oil reserves and falling oil revenues; little inward investmentAcute water shortageWeak central government

Yemen has been rocked by weeks of political turmoil and deteriorating security.

Unemployment in the country runs at around 40%, and there are rising food prices and acute levels of malnutrition.

The country has also been plagued by a range of security issues, including a separatist movement in the south and an uprising of Shia Houthi rebels in the north.

There are fears that Yemen is becoming a leading al-Qaeda haven, with the high numbers of unemployed youths seen as potential recruits for Islamist militant groups.

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UK rejects EU ban on petrol cars

Traffic in LondonThe EU wants to cut carbon emissions by more than half

There should be no petrol or diesel cars in city centres by 2050, the European Commission has proposed.

Transport Commissioner Siim Kallas also set out plans to shift half of “middle distance journeys” from road to rail, and to cut shipping emissions by 40%.

He said: “Freedom to travel is a basic right for our citizens. Curbing mobility is not an option. Nor is business is usual.”

The proposal would cut carbon emissions by 60% and reduce dependence on oil.

Outlining plans for a “Single European Transport Area”, the Commission said there needed to be a “profound shift” in travel patterns to reduce reliance on oil and to lower emissions.

By 2050, it wants the majority of people taking a journey of more than approximately 186 miles to use the train, rather than a car.

Mr Kallas said this move, plus the phasing out of petrol or diesel cars in city centres, need not inconvenience people.

“The widely-held belief that you need to cut mobility to fight climate change is simply not true,” he said.

“We can break the transport system’s dependence on oil without sacrificing its efficiency and compromising mobility.”

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Baby P boss ‘was denied justice’

Sharon ShoesmithMs Shoesmith argues she was unfairly sacked by Haringey Council
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A council officer who presided over the department which failed to help abused toddler Baby Peter is fighting her sacking at the Court of Appeal.

Sharon Shoesmith was sacked as the £130,000-a-year director of children’s services at Haringey Council, north London, in December 2008.

Her department failed to save Peter Connelly, who died aged 17 months after sustained abuse.

Ms Shoesmith argues she was denied a fair hearing over her sacking.

The High Court previously found decisions made by Ofsted, former children’s secretary Ed Balls and Haringey Council which led to the sacking were lawful.

But Ms Shoesmith’s counsel James Maurici said there was “buck passing” between the three which had led to her being denied natural justice.

He said Ms Shoesmith was a highly successful public servant who had been praised in a 2006 Ofsted report for “strong and dynamic leadership”.

Mr Maurici added that she now faced ruin.

He said: “While trapped in her flat by the media, she had the extreme misfortune to see on television the secretary of state Mr Ed Balls at a live press conference announce that he was directing that Haringey remove her from her post ‘with immediate effect’.”

Mr Maurici claimed the politician acted on the “damning findings” of an Ofsted report into the death that Ms Shoesmith had not been given the chance to respond to.

During the previous hearing, High Court judge Mr Justice Foskett said: “I do not think that any fair-minded person could think that this was a satisfactory state of affairs.”

Mr Maurici said that statement “lies at the heart of this appeal”.

He said the comment supports the claim Ms Shoesmith was treated unfairly and the judge was therefore wrong to refuse her previous appeal.

Mr Maurici added that the decisions made by the authorities were “not made fairly and lawfully, and therefore had no legal effect”.

But lawyers for the government say Mr Balls’s actions were carefully thought through and rational.

Peter Connelly was found dead with more than 50 injuries, including fractured ribs and a broken back.

His mother, her partner and a lodger were all jailed for causing or allowing his death.

Peter had been seen by health and social services professionals 60 times in the eight months before he died.

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Italy PM attends corruption trial

Silvio Berlusconi 25 March 2011Berlusconi says he wants to prove his innocence

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is due to appear in court to face trial over corruption charges.

Mr Berlusconi, who is a defendant in a total of four trials, says he will attend as many hearings as possible in order to prove his innocence.

The trial starting on Monday concerns one of Mr Berlusconi’s media companies.

Although a series of sex and corruption scandals have taken their toll on his popularity, there’s no immediate threat to his position as prime minister.

In the case being heard on Monday, the prime minister, his son and a number of others are accused of inflating the price paid to buy television rights, and then skimming off the difference to fund political and other activities.

Mr Berlusconi denies the charges.

The 74-year-old prime minister has been a defendant in around 50 trials in his career, but hasn’t made a public appearance at one for many years.

He exercises his right to stay away, accusing the judiciary of being politically biased against him.

But now he says he will turn up at as many hearings as his job permits in order to prove his innocence.

Another reason why he is due to appear in court is that Mr Berlusconi had his immunity from prosecution watered down in January.

As well as this court case, he also faces two other corruption trials and a fourth where he is accused of paying an underage prostitute.

In that trial, Mr Berlusconi faces up to 15 years in jail.

In each case Mr Berlusconi says he’s innocent.

But although the cumulative effect of these sex and corruption scandals have taken their toll on his popularity, there’s no immediate threat to his position as prime minister.

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Film Council bows out with report

Film canister (Credit: Thinkstock)More than 4,000 people were polled as part of the independent study
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On the eve of its closure, the UK Film Council has issued a report saying more should be done in film to portray the country’s audiences authentically.

An independent survey of 4,315 people found older women feel marginalised and that they are often depicted as not having sexual needs or desires.

It also claims minority ethnic groups feel they are often stereotyped.

From 1 April, the UK Film Council’s funding responsibilities are being transferred to other bodies.

The organisation, founded in 2000, was axed last July as part of a cost-cutting drive by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS).

The study was commissioned to examine how older women and other diverse groups such as Black African/Caribbean, Asian and Lesbian/Gay/Bisexual audiences are being portrayed in film.

Its findings suggest most Black African/Caribbean individuals believe they are too often characterised as drug dealers and that a majority of Asian audiences feel Asian religious culture is not reflected authentically.

Almost three-quarters of Lesbian/Gay/Bisexual audiences believe that film focuses on them as having problems rather than being everyday people, it continues.

Gary OldmanActor Gary Oldman commented on its findings at Sunday’s Empire awards

In addition, the study goes on, almost three-quarters of Eastern European respondents believed they were regularly portrayed as being at the bottom of the economic ladder.

The report concludes that “there is considerable commercial opportunity to be reaped if diverse groups are represented more authentically in film”.

Mary FitzPatrick, the UK Film Council’s head of diversity, said the research “highlights the often overlooked views, opinions and needs of the diverse groups that make up an important part of the film industry’s audience”.

“Film has the ability to change behaviour and shift opinion,” she continued. “We in the industry all have a responsibility to ensure that these findings are not ignored.”

But speaking at the Empire awards in London on Sunday, actor Gary Oldman said the report’s findings on older women were reflective of the “crazy world we live in”.

“Maybe it’s something to do with the climate of political correctness,” he told the BBC’s Colin Paterson.

“You can’t do anything now. If you make a woman sexy we’re objectifying them.”

Prior to this year, the UK Film Council had an annual budget of £15 million to invest in British films.

From Friday, its responsibilities will be transferred to the British Film Institute (BFI) and the Film London agency.

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Derry court bomb was substantial

Security alert at the Diamond in LondonderryA substantial bomb has caused a security alert in Londonderry

The police in Northern Ireland have described a bomb at the centre of a security alert in Londonderry as a “substantial viable device”.

District Commander, Stephen Martin, said it could have caused death or serious injury.

Dozens of elderly residents were moved from a sheltered housing development due to the alert.

Fifteen choirboys, some of them as young as seven, were told to get out of the nearby St Columb’s Cathedral.

The alert followed a telephone bomb warning which was received at about 1845 BST on Sunday.

District Commander Martin said that the police would try to return the area to normal as soon as possible, but they would be “cautious”.

“A device like this would have caused considerable devastation”

Stephen Martin PSNI District Commander

“If a bomb such as this had gone off it would have killed or seriously injured people,” he said.

“It would have caused substantial damage to nearby property; to the courthouse, to the Masonic Hall, to the Deanery, to other residents.

“It would have probably damaged the residential home, Alexander House.

“It’s just a highly built up residential part of the city within the walls and a device this size would have caused considerable devastation.”

He also said that police patrols had been increased in response to a perceived increase in the risk of violence.

“It’s two years since the threat in Northern Ireland has been escalated to severe and acts like this are a strong possibility,” he said.

“They can come at any time without warning.”

Dean William Morton of St Columb’s Cathedral described the incident as a “logistical nightmare”.

He contacted parents of choirboys who were at the Cathedral for a rehearsal for the opera, Tosca.

“It’s achieving absolutely nothing other than galvanising the resolve on the part of the huge majority of people here to move ahead,” he said.

“I am sure it will all be cleared and life will continue.”

Sinn Fein MLA, Martina Anderson, said the device was out of step with the views of the vast majority of the people of the city.

“We are all of the view that an attack on any place in this city is an attack on us all.”

SDLP representative Pat Ramsey said the residents who had to leave Alexander House, were “distressed, angry and frustrated” at what had happened.

“Even with people who have not been evacuated there is a sense of confusion, because in the city centre there are a lot of residential areas in and around this particular area,” he added.

The DUP’s William Hay appealed for whatever resources were necessary in dealing with the threat of violence to be made available to the PSNI.

“There’s no doubt about it,” he said, “where it was placed it was to cause maximum damage to property and lives.”

The UUP Councillor, Mary Hamilton, condemned the bomb.

“We are trying to move on and look towards a city of culture and this is certainly not helping.”

Community worker, Charlie McMenamin, helped to transport the residents to another sheltered housing facility.

“Obviously being elderly they’re upset,” he said.

“They’re not used to this situation where they’re being moved around without any sort of notice.

He said one woman had told him, “I am sorry I moved to Derry.”

The security alert is ongoing, with traffic being diverted away from the Bishop Street area.

Court hearings at the courthouse on Monday have been moved to other courts.

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Oil-soaked penguins put in rehab

More than 1,500 oil-soaked northern rockhopper penguins are in a rehabilitation centre on Tristan da Cunha island, says RSPB.

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VIDEO: China bus escapes falling concrete

CCTV cameras aboard a bus in China have captured the moment the driver averted disaster, as a concrete aqueduct collapsed over a motorway.

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One, two, three…

Embankment in LondonOne, two, three, four…

The number of protesters in London on Saturday has been estimated anywhere from 250,000 to 500,000. So is it possible to count?

No one knows exactly how many people joined the march and rally against spending cuts.

As the march finished in Hyde Park, the Trades Union Congress, which organised the event, estimated there was about 250,000.

On the following day, they were saying it was between 400,000 and 500,000. So how do they count?

“It’s an inexact science, which is why we’re not making any very, very accurate claims,” says Nigel Stanley, head of TUC campaigns.

“We have been piecing together information from yesterday and think we’re close to half a million people.”

The answerMeasuring capacity of streets where crowds assemble and applying formula according to how densely packed it isAllowing for the dynamic nature of a march by working out how long it takes to pass different pointsThe police get an idea simply from experience

There are two ways of estimating numbers, he says. One is drawn from having a rough idea in advance of the capacity of streets in the area where people gathered for the start of the march.

“We know that the whole of Victoria Embankment was full but backing up to Lower Thames Street and people were in all adjacent roads and across the bridges,” says Stanley

This advance planning involves studying very precise maps with measurements of streets, and then multiplying the width by the length to get the area, he says. Then you apply a rule of thumb that three people per square metre is comfortable and four is like a rock concert. On Saturday, it was probably about 3.5 per square metre, organisers estimate.

This calculation, helped by having a TUC representative in the police control room looking at CCTV, prompted the early and more modest estimates, says Stanley.

But then a second stage of calculations is required, to allow for the fact this is a moving group, with many people joining the march late. This requires some knowledge of how long the march takes to pass a particular point in the road.

“We know it took more than four hours to pass any point, and that the crowd was quite dense. A combination of these two ways, plus conversations with the police and others experienced in this, led us to revise the figure from 250,000 to nearer 500,000.”

WHO, WHAT, WHY?

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A part of BBC News Magazine, Who, What, Why? aims to answer questions behind the headlines

It would be better to always supply a caveat of a 20% margin of error but the media demand for accurate numbers is an impossible one to meet, he adds.

Of course, organisers of any demonstration are always open to accusations they inflate the numbers for their own ends.

That’s why the police sometimes estimate numbers too. At a demonstration in London in 2003 against the Iraq War, organisers said nearly two million people took part, although police put the figure at 750,000.

At the weekend, the police were not making any claims about numbers because they were happy with those being supplied by the TUC.

A Metropolitan Police spokeswoman said the force only does so when it disagrees with the figures being given by those organising an event, and their counting methods rely on experience more than science.

“We don’t normally give out numbers and would point people to organisers, it’s their march. But we do know what certain areas can hold in terms of people. For example, on New Year’s Eve, we know the strip along the Embankment by the London Eye holds a certain number.

“We can’t be that accurate unless we stand there counting but with those kinds of numbers, you can’t do that. Experienced officers get an accurate idea of what they are looking at but we wouldn’t usually go on the record with it.”

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